Saturday, November 27, 2010

Table Image: Second Thoughts

I have been feeling slightly anxious the last few days. I'm a bit worried that in my last post, Table Image, I recommend playing recklessly in order to achieve a profitable table image. I'm really not comfortable with the idea of people deliberately doing stupid things, because it is difficult to stop doing them once you've started. I don't recommend you try cultivating a loose/aggressive table image until you are an experienced enough player to do so without loosing all your chips in the process.

Some of you might also have noticed that this talk about loose play runs counter everything I've said about playing tight poker. It does. Again, 99% of the time tight is right and you can only appear to be loose if you are skilled enough to make it pay later on. I would not recommend the beginner player try this, as it is far more important that you use every bit of your concentration just to play strong, solid poker.

Also, you often don't have to deliberately do something crazy or stupid to make people believe you are crazy or stupid. Even a really good player makes a boneheaded move now and again, and when you do make a mistake you might be able to capitalize on it later.

A good example of this just happened to me yesterday. I was playing a one table sit-n-go tournament. I wasn't giving the game the attention I should have been. In fact I was writing a blog and playing poker simultaneously, which is a pretty dumb thing to do. Anyway, I got into a hand early in the tourney where I was in the big blind and every one kept checking. I would have folded my J 9 pre-flop but nobody raised me, so I saw a flop of 9 K 4 for free. I would have folded this pair of nines but nobody raised me, so I saw the turn (the Ace of diamonds) for free too. All this time I'm trying to write my blog, trying to fold, but nobody raises after the turn so I see the river for free too. The river is the nine of diamonds. Sweet! I've got three nines, which is very likely to be the best hand even with only a Jack as a kicker. So I make a pot sized bet and the moment I do I realize something: there are four diamonds on this board! How could I be so stupid? I see there are three players to act after me, so the odds that any one of them has hit the flush is very high (about 84% I think, but if you disagree let me know) high enough to make my betting here qualify for the bonehead move of the day. One guys calls and beats me with a lousy six of diamonds. Everyone sees what a doofus I am and one guy immediately starts ripping into me: "What F'cking Moron!" he writes in the chat box. You see constructive criticism like this a lot on internet poker.

So two things happen after that. Firstly, I forget about the blog and concentrate on the poker. Secondly, almost every time I make a hand from then on I get plenty of callers. I think looking so dumb really worked in my favour and I ended up winning the tourney.

When (not if, but when) you do something wrong, don't get mad at yourself and go on tilt. Think about who saw your mistake, what they think of you, and how to exploit that perception.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Table Image

When most people think of table image, they think about being the dominant player at the table. They imagine the best image to have is one that intimidates their opponents and allows them to steamroll to pot after pot. If you will permit me to play amateur psychologist for a moment, I believe these players are using poker to play out their alpha-male fantasies and they care more about looking cool than about winning money. With all do respect, real sharks don't want to look like sharks.

Which of the two following scenarios is the most profitable to find your self in?

Scenario A: You have been running over your opponents for the last hour. Every move you've made has worked and now everyone knows you are a really tough, talented and smart poker player. With such a table image firmly established, you are certain you can now steal a few pots by bluffing. Your opponents are so scared of you that they will fold everything but the nuts. So you raise the pot five times the big blind pre-flop. It doesn't matter that you have 4 5 off-suit, because you expect everyone to fold to you. You do get caller though - the big blind, who rather nervously calls. That's ok - you will probably be able to bluff him off the pot later, right? The flop comes down 7h 2h Jh - a really good flop to bluff because it is very unlikely your opponent is holding two hearts, and the other hands he could have that hit this flop are JJ or AJ, again remote possibilities. Your opponent acts first and just checks. Good. Now, a big bet here would look like you are protecting your hand from the flush draw, so it wouldn't look like the bluff it is. Confident in your image as a strong player you make a pot sized bet.

Scenario B: You have been playing a lot of pots in the last hour. In addition to playing strong starting hands, you have been playing a lot of speculative hands as well and people at the table have started making jokes about how you don't know how to fold. You have won some big pots hitting your draws on the river, but you have lost about as much attempting some silly bluffs. You are sure everyone thinks you are crazy. You are dealt pocket kings in late position and someone bets 4 times the big blind in front of you. You make a raise that is 8 times the big blind. Everyone folds except the original bettor, who calls. The flop comes down 3 9 K, rainbow.

So. Would you rather find your self in Scenario A or Scenario B? I hope it is obvious to you that Scenario B is far and away the best situation to find yourself in.

In Scenario A, your dominate image will probably win you that pot that is only worth 10.5 bets. Probably. But there is still the risk your opponent does have two hearts or something else he simply will not fold: AJ, JJ, AA or KK for example. You run the risk of losing a minimum of 15.5 bets and maybe more if you "fire the second bullet" and bluff after the turn as well.

In Scenario B, you have established an image as a maniac, so that when you hit a monster hand you are very likely to be paid off. The trick is to make the same sized bets you've made up to this point - making a small bet here when you've been making pot-sized bets until this point will only set off alarm bells! If anything, a bigger than normal bet will likely convince your opponent that you are bluffing. Play this hand well, and you will make a lot more in this single pot than you have lost in the last hour by playing like a doofus.

Looking like an idiot can be profitable - if you can minimize the money you lose while establishing that table image. Sharks refer to money you lose in this manner as "advertising" - an expense that, hopefully, will lead to greater returns later.

And always remember: It's not how many pots you win, it's how big the pots are that matters.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Sneaky Cards

Let's pretend you are in late position at a game of no limit hold-em. Your opponents are playing tight and the pots have been small. You are dealt a 4 5 off-suit. Uncharacteristically, the player under the gun raises two times the big blind and remarkably there are three callers before the action gets to you. Obviously your 4 5 is not the best hand and is unlikely to become the best hand after the flop, so you should fold right? Maybe, maybe not. When four tight players all enter a raised pot it tells you something - that there are as many as eight high cards being shared among those four players. It is a safe bet that more than one of them has an ace and there are probably some kings and queens being held as well. Maybe a pocket pair in some body's hand too, but let's just think about those high cards for now.

With high cards being shared among several opponents, low cards like your 4 5 are not so bad. You are less likely to see an ace or king hit the flop when most of them are already in your opponents hands, so that increases the odds of seeing cards you will like. Any combination of 2 3 6 or 7 will give you a straight draw of some kind, but more importantly it will be difficult for your opponents to put you on this draw. Don't play a hand like 4 5 unless you are confident that you will be paid off.

In most cases the flop will not help you, but with a 4 5 in your hand it is easy to throw your hand away and not lose any more than your two bets.

If you do see a flop like 3 6 Q and someone makes a bet before you, you can throw your hand away or you can figure if it is worth it to call and hope to fill your straight. Your decision will be based on implied pot odds. You must ask yourself; "If I hit my straight, how much will this guy pay me off?" If you are sure that potential pay-off is enough to justify a call, then go ahead.

So much goes into trying to calculate implied pot odds that I can only mention a few of the things you have to consider. Obviously your opponent needs to have a lot of chips - best case scenario is that he has much more chips than you because you could potentially double up your stack. Almost as important is how "sneaky" you hand is. You entered a raised pot pre-flop, so he unlikely to be thinking you have something like 4 5, and if you call his bet here then he will certainly not be putting you on the straight draw.

The flop of 3 6 Q hides your draw a bit too. A flop like 2 3 Q would be worse for you, even though both flops give you exactly the same odds of hitting your straight, because the 2 3 makes the straight draw more noticeable. A flop like 3 6 Q hides your draw, and that increases the likelihood of a big pay-off if you get there.

If you do go on to win with a hand like this one, you will probably be seen as a lucky maniac by your opponents. That's great! The most profitable table image you can have is the lucky maniac. I'll discuss table image next time.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Lessons From My Father

In his youth, my father was flying officer in the Canadian Air Force. He often told me stories of those days and tried to teach me some of the life lessons he learned as a pilot. I remember two things very distinctly and both are lessons that poker players would do well to heed.

My dad liked to give me riddles to solve or pose problems to test me. I liked the attention and tried hard to show how smart I was.

Once he said to me something like, "Tyler, imagine you are flying an airplane over the mountains. A sudden freak storm has come up - unbelievably strong winds that could quite likely tear your wings off. You know you can get below the storm if you drop you altitude 500 feet, but according to your instruments this would put you in danger of hitting a mountain. You are an experienced pilot, and all your instincts tell you not to trust you instruments - that they have been effected by the storm and if you drop 500 feet you will save the plane and your life. The instruments say that if you drop 500 feet you will crash into a mountain. What do you do?"

I thought about it. Being a child, I thought more about what answer my dad wanted me to give rather than what the right answer was. I was pretty sure that my dad wanted me to say that when the chips were down, I had to follow my gut instincts and trust in myself.

"I'd drop below the storm," I answered.

"Tyler, if you do that you will crash into a mountain, killing yourself and everyone else on the plane. Always trust your instruments. Trusting instinct and ignoring your instruments will get you killed."

Lesson learned. At the poker table, if all the evidence says your opponent has you beat, but a small voice inside you insists that he is bluffing (even though he has never bluffed before!), do NOT listen to that voice.

Lesson two is simply a saying my dad repeated frequently: Attitude is altitude.

My dad explained to me that in aviation, a plane's attitude referred to the degree of inclination. It doesn't matter how high you might be, a negative attitude would eventually crash you into the ground. Conversely you might be at a low altitude, but maintaining positive attitude will pull you up.

You are having a bad session at the poker table. You started with $1000 in chips two hours ago and are down to $300. Guess what? The fact that you have lost $700 has no bearing on whether or not you win or lose from this point forward. But if your attitude is bad, like "I've lost $700, what's losing another $300 to me?", then you are almost guaranteed to crash into the ground. Catch yourself mid-fall. If you feel you can't shake your negative attitude get up from the table.

You must approach each hand fresh, unburdened by the events of the past- even the last hand. It doesn't matter what happened before. Each timer the dealer gives you cards you have the opportunity to make the best or the worst of it.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

The Music of Chance

Book Review:
The Music of Chance
By Paul Auster
1990, Viking Press

A while ago my wife and I met up with some old friends and the topic of conversation eventually turned to books. I was asked what I had been reading lately and my wife replied, "Tyler reads mostly poker books now." This confused our friends, who in all the years that they had known us had never heard of me reading anything but fiction.

"Poker novels?" one of them asked.

"No. Books on how to play poker. And poker biographies. There are no poker novels," I replied.

But of course I was wrong. I had forgotten about Paul Auster's The Music of Chance as well as many other novels in which poker plays a large role. Thinking about this book now, I realize that it very successfully captures the paradox of gambling - the freedom one can feel by giving up control of ones life, and how destructive this impulse can be.

The novel tells the story of Jim Nashe, a Boston firefighter, who is as solid a guy as there is. But when he unexpectedly comes into a fair sized inheritance the routine of his life is overturned by the possibilities of what he can now do. He quits his job, buys a nice car and drives all over America, leaving his fate to chance and his decisions to the whim of the moment. When the money starts to run out however, Jim can't bring himself to return to his former life. Instead he falls in with a gambler who promises that, with Jim's backing, he can make them both a small fortune playing poker against a couple of rich suckers he knows. From this point onward the novel changes tone, moving from a gritty realism into the classic Auster blend of symbolism and wonderland mind games. This is good stuff and I won't spoil it for you.

For me, The Music of Chance is a cautionary tale. Poker people often talk about how the game is a metaphor for life, meaning that the discipline, intelligence and risk tolerance required to succeed at poker will also help you win at other endeavours. While true, the darker aspects of poker, such as it's appeal to our self-destructive nature, are reflections of yearnings that play themselves out away from the table as well. High marks to Auster for nailing the psychology that drives many to the game. I recommend everyone read it, and if you also play poker I hope you will recognize the Jim Nashe in you and keep his impulses in check.

I frequently repeat the saying that "fiction is the lie that tells the truth." If you are a poker player, I think you will be better at the game if you read great works of fiction. Poker is largely a psychological game and fiction more than any other art form concerns itself with understanding human behavior. It is no accident that many great players, such as Annie Duke, were literature majors. If you haven't read a novel in years and are wondering which book to start with, The Music of Chance is a great one.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Talk to me

"Do you want me to call, or do you want me to fold?"

"Can you beat queens?"

"If I shove here, are you gonna call? Come on, buddy. Talk to me."

Believe it or not, you hear guys asking such questions at the poker table all the time. The askers of such questions are looking for information, obviously. They don't expect honest answers - they are just looking for clues. If you react to such queries, your reaction will be evaluated and you are giving information. Perhaps, you think, you can mislead your opponent with your answer, and maybe you can, but I think the best course of action is to do your best statue impersonation.

I was once in such a situation. I had pocket jacks and saw the flop against one opponent. The flop had a queen and two small cards. My opponent bet the pot, and I made a substantial re-raise. My opponent started peppering me with questions; "You got Kings?" "You got Ace Queen?" "You got Jacks, don't you?"

It dawned on me that if this guy was so desperate for information he must not have a very strong hand. So, rather stupidly, I said "If you have to ask, then I'm pretty sure I have you beat." Man that was a dumb thing to say. I might as well have just shown him my cards. Not surprisingly, he called bet. Even though I went on to win the hand, it was a mistake to give my opponent information. Now, if I had the nuts and said such a thing, maybe it would have been a brilliant move, but I think if you start getting into the psychological warfare stuff you are just asking for trouble.

My advice is until you have logged 10,000 hours of live poker, (I haven't) don't say anything. Pick a spot on the table and try to stare a hole in it. The temptation is to say something weak when you are strong and vice-versa, but if your opponent has logged more table time than you, no matter what you say or do will be giving him or her information.

And speaking of information, it has been drawn to my attention that some people are having trouble leaving comments on this blog. I really want to encourage dialogue here - I want to learn from you guys! I think it may be harder to leave a comment if you are not logged in as a blogger user, so please feel free to e-mail me your thoughts:

mondaywingnut@hotmail.com

Come on, buddy. Talk to me.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

CAN-A-DA! CAN-A-DA!

Last night Jonathan Duhamel, from Boucherville Quebec, became the first Canadian to win the main event at the World Series of Poker, pocketing a cool $8.9 million USD.

Previously Canadians had finished as high as second in both 1995 and 2007.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

The Joy of Poker

One of the great things about poker is that it doesn't matter who you are, what you know, what your bank account balance is, where you were born, or any thing else - once you sit down at the table you are just another person trying to take chips from other people who are trying to take chips from you. Poker is the great democratic game, where a millionaire investment banker has to sweat whether or not to call a massive re-raise from a little old lady from Moose Jaw. Poker is about people.

Yesterday the final table of the World Series of Poker got under way, but I wasn't following the action. My friend Wally had gotten me an invitation to play in a tournament that was being run out of a furniture warehouse out by the airport. Seriously, how cool is that?

I showed up at the appointed time and found a friendly bunch of guys, most of whom gave off the vibe of poker experience. These were not novices who weren't sure if a full house beat a flush, so I would have to be careful. Unlike the tournaments run by casinos, all of the money paid to enter was given back in prize money. That meant that the guys who put this together were getting nothing for all their trouble except the fun of it. In fact it seemed that everyone there was just in it for the love of the game, and this positive mood made it one of the most enjoyable poker experiences I've ever had.

There is always, it seems, one hyper-aggressive guy at the start of a tourney. Most people start tight and cautious, so the aggressive player usually can shoot out to an early lead. This happened at my table, although really two guys were contesting a lot of pots. True to form the most aggressive guy was the first to bust out, going all-in with 7 8 off suit and getting called by big slick.

I was getting an incredible amount of respect from my table mates, who seemed to think I was some kind of shark. Every time I made a raise I couldn't get a caller. I knew sooner or later someone would bet back at me, so I tried timing it so that a legitimate raise would look like a bluff. About an hour and a half in I was dealt pocket kings in the big blind. One guy limps and James, our amiable host for the evening, calls from the small blind. I check because everyone would just fold if I raised. The flop was Jack high with no real flush or straight draws. James makes a small bet, which I call and the original limper folds. I can't remember the turn card, but it doesn't really change the board. James makes his move, like I hoped he would, betting $1000 in tournament chips. I bet $4000 really quickly, which was the right amount to look like a bluff, but in retrospect I maybe should have pretended to give that decision a little more thought. Anyway this raise was enough to make James agonize over his decision, but he finally made the right choice and laid it down, showing me an ace. Good fold.

I got knocked out right in the middle of the pack. I was in early position with AQ off. The blinds were up to a massive $1000/$2000 and I had about $17,000 in chips, which had me somewhere near 8th place, I think. The guy under the gun was very short-stacked and went all-in with $2,350. I considered raising to isolate but I didn't like my hand so much that I could call a re-raise, so I just called. Everyone folded except the big blind, who had a massive amount of chips, and only had to put in another $350 to call. The flop was Qc 8s 4s, giving me top pair with an ace kicker. Playing out of the big blind, my opponent could be holding just about anything, but I was pretty sure I was in the lead. With such a massive amount of chips, I fully expected him to try to push me out right here, and sure enough he bet $2,000. I announce all in and he calls. I show my hand and he shows Qs 10s. I have him out kicked, but he has the flush draw - any spade will win it for him and he could also pair his ten. That's 12 outs, which makes me only a slight favourite to win this hand. Unfortunately for me my opponent paired his 10 on the turn, knocking me out. Perhaps I should have raised pre-flop to price out the big blind, but I got all my money in with the best hand, so I really don't feel like I made a mistake. If my hand held up I would have moved up to about fourth, which is where I needed to be to make some money.

As I left I I went by my friend Wally's table to say goodnight. He didn't have many chips in front of him so I assumed he was on the ropes, but I later heard he finished in third place. Way to go Wally!

All-in-all, it was a really fun night that captured the spirit of poker. Down in Vegas they have casinos that are themed like medievil castles, circuses and ancient Rome. That's all very nice, but I think if I were to design my own poker room in a casino, I'd make it look like a furniture warehouse. That's the kind of place where real poker is played.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Range

You are playing against a particular fellow you know pretty well. You've played him many times and you know he tends to go all-in right after the flop if he catches anything as good as top-pair with an ace kicker, or better. Obviously I am outlining an example here to illustrate a lesson, and it's rare that you will ever have an opponent that is this predictable, still most people tend to do the same things over time and their actions can lead you to make educated guesses as to what they are holding.

So, getting back to our example, you know the range of hands this fellow is likely to be holding should he go all-in after a flop, and knowing this you would be foolish to call on a draw or with top pair king kicker. But what if you have top two pair? Or bottom trips?

Knowing an opponents range makes the decision to call or fold one of probability: does the hand you have beat most hands in his range? Remember that he is more likely to be holding the hands at the low end of his range than those at the top - simply because the lower a hand rank, the more common it is. Still it might take a mind-boggling amount of math to figure out all the possible odds of the different hands he could be holding.

A simple rule I use is once I am satisfied I know an opponents' range, I set my own range of hands that I would call with somewhat higher. So if I only call the guy in the example with two-pair or better, I'm likely to win most of those showdowns.

If I think my opponents are experienced, I might play loose at first to get them to believe my range is much broader than it is. The truth is most players start out a session playing tight, but gradually lower their standards as they go along. It seems to be a natural movement. You should try doing the opposite, starting out loose and then tightening up as you go. The problem is that it is much harder to do than it is to say! Everyone starts out trying to play their best, only to loose discipline over time. Fight this urge!

Watch all hands very carefully, even those you are not involved in. Pay attention to what hands your adversaries think are good enough to bet big on. This will give you good idea of what you'll need to beat them.