The Elder Experiment

Back in September I promised to do an experiment that would measure my success playing hands from different positions. I never finished that experiment but I have recently started something similar. Here's how it works: I'm simply going to play the best poker I can on-line, and measure how much I win or lose from the different positions.

The first experiment I did (Tight is right)was based on 1,000 hands - which I think is really too small a sample. In no-limit hold'em, you can win or lose so much in a single hand that it can really skew your results and a very large sample is needed to average things out. So this time instead of 1,000 hands total, I'm going to play 1,000 hands from each position. As you can imagine this is going to take awhile, so please be patient. So far I have played 125 hands from each position, and the results are so strange (for example my results on the button are terrible, while my best results have come from the second-to-act position and the small blind) that I can't draw any conclusions at all, except maybe position doesn't really matter that much. Let's see what it looks like after the full 1,000.

In attempt to get results that might be similar to a "real money" game, I am playing "high-stakes" play money. That is 2,000/1,000 blinds with a maximum $200,000 that can be brought to the table. My thinking is that anyone who has built up their fantasy bankrolls high enough to play at these levels should be fairly good.

Why the "Elder" experiment? Bill Elder is a pro who is very vocal about the power of position, so I named it after him.

Folding AA

Poker is situational - and this is particularly true in tournament play. Let me give you an extreme example. I was playing a massive one-line tournament last weekend with over 9,000 competitors. The last 250 player left standing would be given entry to another more potentially lucrative tournament. This is a very unusual structure - the person who finishes 1st and the person who finishes 250th get exactly the same thing! Needless to say, such a structure should have a great influence on the way you play but interestingly enough a lot of players have a hard time adjusting.

Like many low or no-buy in tournaments with massive competitors, the first few rounds were a stupid all-in fest; and the field shrank by half in less than an hour, those aggressive risk-takers who had not gone bust had accumulated huge stacks - in fact it was obvious that those in the top ten spots had so many chips that they could fold the rest of the way and still finish in the top 250. But would players who had been so aggressive be able to stop themselves? Out of curiosity, I flagged the top ten at that point to see how many would make the cut.

My own strategy was simple: play my best and see what happens. What happened was I did really well, and when we were down to 500 players I was in 180th spot - not quite to the point I could fold everything, but I could make it if I didn't do something incredibly dumb. The closer we got to the bubble, the tighter everyone played. With about 270 players left I was dealt pocket aces. I was in 150th spot, so I had no need to play the hand, but I just couldn't fold them either so I put in a modest raise. The guy right after me, who had a gigantic stack, moved all-in. I thought about calling - obviously I had the best hand- but thankfully I did a little risk-reward thinking: what would be the reward if I called and won? Nothing really - maybe the satisfaction of winning a hand of poker. Big deal. I was going to finish in the top 250 if I folded right here and 150th place and 42nd place get the same thing. What are the risks of calling and losing? AA can lose to any two random cards and if my all-in call back-fired I'd lose my ticket to the next tourney and the three hours I'd invested in this tournament would be for nothing. So, for the first time in my life I folded pocket aces before the flop.

About fifteen minutes later a fellow raised from early position and once again the big-stack bully moved all-in. Unlike me, the original raiser decided to call even though he had enough chips to cruise into the top 250. He turned over AA and the Big Bully turned over Q9o. The flop was Q 9 4, giving Big Bully top two pair and that holds up to knock the guy with aces out in 258th place.

Soon we are down to 250. I check to see how many of those early chip leaders made the cut and I see that six of them did - which is more than I expected. Still four guys blew themselves up for no reason except they couldn't stop playing aggressively!

So yes, the example is extreme but I hope it makes a point. Always factor in the risk-reward when you are making decisions, particularly in tournaments.

Sell a Story

Here is a hand I was involved in yesterday that I think was interesting - and not just because I won it - although it is a lot more fun to blog about victory than defeat!

I had been playing $1/$2 no-limit hold 'em for about an hour at a table with a fair number of experienced players. I think I had established myself as a "ABC" player - a guy who doesn't try a lot of tricky or fancy plays but is straight forward and predictable. I have talked about table image before and have recommended trying to establish yourself as a "lucky maniac" so that you will get action when you have strong hands - but this strategy only works if you bring enough money to lose a fair bit off the top in the hopes of getting back more later. When you bring only $100 to a $1/$2 game you have to be more cautious. The point is that I knew my opponents were observant enough to have me pegged as a "by the book" type.

I was in late position with 8d 9d - a sneaky hand that can improve in different ways. A guy in early position raised to $17 and there was one caller before it was my turn to act. With only $115 in front of me I probably shouldn't be gambling on speculative hands, but I felt that the potential upside was great. I called and so did the Big Blind, so the four of us saw the flop:

Board after the flop: 9h 9s 6h

I really couldn't ask for a better flop! It will be very difficult for my opponents to put me on a nine. Remember, I have been playing both tight and "by the book" so my $17 pre-flop call means I should be holding something like AQ. What makes this hand particularly good for me is that I am last to act. I know that I still don't grasp the full importance of position, but this is certainly a situation where being last to act is a clear advantage - anyone who hit will probably bet to protect their hand from the flush draw in hearts and I can trap them! Everyone checks it to me, which tells me that they all probably have over-cards; hands like AJ or KQ. I decide to play it like I'm on the flush draw myself and make a bet small enough not to scare the over-cards away. The pot is $69 so I throw a measly $15 in.

What happens next is a surprise: the big blind raises it to $30. The other two fold. What would a guy be holding to make a move like this? He could have all sorts of hands, but I think the most likely big pocket pairs or Ah xh. I am very scared of A9 and 66, which are also possible, but I am ahead of the majority of hands in his range.

So, should I re-raise or just call? What do you think?

A re-raise might get more of my opponents money into a pot that I probably will win,
but it will also tell him that I'm holding a very strong hand and I'd rather keep looking weak. A call is consistent with the story I'm trying to sell - that I'm on a draw. Another con to the re-raise is that if I do it and he goes all-in, then I have a tough choice to make. But if I just call and another heart comes on the turn, I will have an even more difficult decision to make! What to do? I call, but I think a re-raise would not have been a bad move either.

Board after the turn: 9h 9s 6h Qc

So now we can add QQ to the hands that have me beat. Q9 and Q6 also beat me, but he would not have called a $17 pre-flop bet with those even at the big blind discount...I hope. He checks. Now what to do? Checking and giving him a free card seems dumb, but if I am trying to sell the story that I'm on the heart draw then that's what I should do. To be honest his check really has confused me. Did he hit the Queen and is trying to trap me? Looking back on it now, I should have raised but I checked.

Board after the river: 9h 9s 6h Qc 4c

The pot is $129. I have $68 left in front of me and my opponent has a little more than that. He bets $40. I go all-in, which is just a $28 raise. With such a small raise into such a big pot he is certainly going to call me, but I can see he is completely baffled by my play. In fact he asks "What could you be holding?" in a genuinely confused tone. He calls, of course. I show my three-of-a-kind and he throws his hand in the muck. "There was no way I could you on a nine," he said.

Why couldn't he put me on a nine? Because I had been playing tight. Calling a $17 bet pre-flop made him think I had high cards, holding a nine would have been inconsistent with my style of play. The when I put out a baby bet after the flop, he knew I didn't have nine. An ABC player, like I had shown myself to be, wouldn't slow play a big hand but would bet big to protect against the flush. A nine in my hand would have seemed very unlikely to him. If he had any doubts at all, my check on the river would have erased them. My all-in on the river was inconsistent with my story and therefore probably seemed like a desperate bluff. Not that he would have folded at that point anyway.

Establishing a certain table image then "shifting gears" is often a good way to set yourself up for winning a big pot!

Re-Connecting to Full Tilt

Just a tip.

If you are a Non-American, and can't down load the Full Tilt Program from their site, www.fulltilt.com because the FBI siezed it, try the british site: www.fulltiltpoker.co.uk

Yikes! FBI Comes After Internet Poker!

I went to log into my favourite on-line poker site yesterday but found I couldn't connect to it. I went then went to the website and was greeted with a message from the FBI saying they had taken over that domain, and that criminal charges were being filed against the company!

Yes. American law enforcement has shut down three sites: Absolute Poker, Poker Stars and Full Tilt Poker, on charges that have to do with "tricking" U.S. banks and credit card companies into allowing american citizens to tranfer money to and from their gambling sites. If you want to check out the news release from the FBI, you can follow this link:
FBI vs On-Line Poker

What does this mean? Well it looks like a lot of people are wondering how they are going to get their money out of these sites! I'm mildly annoyed because I do enjoy playing free-rolls and play-money games on Full Tilt and I also was going to use the site to do a few "experiments" - guess I'll have to go elsewhere! Even though I am a Canadian my access to the site is cut off.

Any way this is a very interesting issue and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

A $1,400 Mistake

I witnessed a hand today where a guy made a mistake that cost him $1,400. It wasn't just an error in judgement- everyone does that from time to time, though in $1/$2 No Limit it is rarely that costly. No, this guy just forgot that this casino, like most I've been to, pays a bonus if you hit quads, stright-flushes and royal flushes.

This guy (let's call him Buddy) was holding the Q 10 of hearts and the flop came Ah Jh 9s -what a great flop for Buddy! Eight outs to an open ended straight draw (4 kings and 4 nines) and nine outs to a flush - and the topper: if a king of hearts hits then he gets a royal flush and the casino will give him additional $1,400 on top of whatever he wins in the hand. There are two others in the hand with him. He acts first and bets half the pot. Why?! What if they both fold!? Luckily for him he gets a caller, and the turn brings a Ks, giving him the ace-high straight - he is certainly ahead, but it is still possible he could lose if his opponent rivers a flush in spades or a full house - unlikely but possible. Still, our buddy is not going to let that happen! He bets the pot, player #2 folds, and Buddy shows everyone what he was holding as he rakes in the $80 pot. Immediately everyone says "Why did you bet!? If you hit the flush on the river you'd get a big payout! The dealer confirms that a royal flush in hearts would pay over $1,400- it's a pot that builds until it pays out and the royal flush in hearts is the juciest jackpot right now. Buddy lamely mutters something about how he didn't want to see another spade.

Now what the dealer did next was probably out of line - he should have gathered up the cards and dealt the next hand. But he didn't. The dealer, curious to see what the river would have been, burned a card and then turned over, you guessed it, the king of hearts. Buddy threw away $1,400 to protect a $80 pot.

Ouch. I'm sure Buddy will be very careful to check the payouts for monster hands everytime he visits a casino from now on. Let's learn from his mistakes and do the same.

Slow Rolls Revisited

It's funny. Last Saturday I wrote a post (Eight Months and Eighty Two Posts Later) in which I basically bragged about how I had gotten back to even lifetime. I said I was going to proceed with caution. Then what do I do? I break my bankroll rules and lose $200.

Two days ago I wrote a little post (Slow Rolls) in which I said I don't understand why people get so angry when they get slow rolled. Well, after my crummy day yesterday ( Getting Run Over) I understand that annoyance. In the hand I described where I busted out, the lady who beat me made a runner-runner full house for a virtually unbeatable hand. Did she have to wait so long after I showed my pocket kings to announce they were no good? Quite frankly, suffering a bad beat is bad enough without having salt rubbed in the wound. Earlier I had a guy river the nut flush on me when I was holding two pair, and he also slow-rolled me and that pissed me off a bit too.

Still, I think there is little point in getting angry about slow rolls. Getting angry will just put you on tilt. Shrug it off. Put it behind you.

Easier said than done.

Getting Run Over

Went to the casino planning to play my usual conservative game but the wheels came off and I lost $200.

I took only $100 from my bankroll, which has been the norm for me. Playing 1/2 no limit, this is only 50 big blinds, so I am forced to be very selective about the hands I play, which is good. I can't really scare anyone with such a small stack, so bluffing is not an option - and that's fine with me because bluffing has cost me more than it has won me.

It was a very loose table, people were going all-in on draws and making $30 bets pre-flop with hands like A7s. This should be a perfect scenario for me - just wait for the nuts and reap in the chips. Only problem is I sat for an hour without getting anything playable. Nothing at all. I'd had about $12 blinded off my stack when I got dealt the red jacks one-off the button. There was a $5 straddle on and three people called before me, making the pot $23 at this point. I definately want to reduce the number of people I have to beat, so I want to raise it up to where I will only get one caller. A $30 bet should accomplish this, so that's what I fire out. Guess what? I get five callers! This is insane! now the pot is up to just under $200, and my remaining chips are down to just over $50.

The flop: Ad Qc Kd

Against five others there is no way I am ahead here. And no way will I throw the rest of my chips away praying for another jack or a ten. The first person bets $70, gets one caller, and I fold. Dammit. The pot ended up going to a guy with nothing more than a pair of kings which beat out a flush draw. A $400 pot.

Despite being down to half my original stack, I know that if I can just wait, soon or later I will get a monster and these maniacs will pay me off. But with only around $55 left, how big a payday can I hope for? I tell myself I need more chips. I convince myself I need more chips. Despite having brought only $100 from my bankroll, I do have another $100 in my wallet and this money will be put to good use when I finally get my monster. So I break my rule and I buy more chips. This would prove to be a big mistake.

With a little over $200 in chips, I can wait for awhile. And I do. I play a few small pots in the rare occations I don't need to pay a lot to see a flop, but mostly it's fold, fold, fold.

Then it happens. I'm on the button when I get the red Kings. As is the norm, there is a $5 straddle with four callers when the guy on my right raises it to $17. This guy has been a bully, and he raises a lot pre-flop and then makes massive bets later. He has a whopping stack - about $1,500, I'd guess - and he isn't afraid to put people all-in. Well that's just fine by me and my friends the cowboys. I raise it $40. Crazy Lady in the big blind calls, as does the only player at the table who I would call tight, and his call worries me. To my shock, everyone else including the bully folds. So the pot is a stupid $157 and three of us see the flop.

The board after the Flop: 9d 7h 4c

Even against the somewhat tight guy, I'm sure my Kings are good. Only AA, 99, 77, 44, 97, 74, or 94 are better hands than mine right now, and of those nobody would call a $40 bet pre-flop with anything but the AA. So...Crazy Lady checks, Tightish Dude checks (whew! - I have observed he bets when he thinks he is ahead, so I doubt he has AA) so now I have to figure out what to do. Quite frankly I just want to take this pot right now. I bet $100. Crazy Lady calls.

At this point, perhaps I should tell you why I call her "Crazy Lady". In the time I have been here, she has lost about $1000, mainly by calling all-in with hands like second-highest pair. She is, to use the poker expression, insane. Her call could mean anything. Okay, back to the game.

Tightish Dude eyes that $350 pot and thinks a long time before throwing his cards in the muck. So it 's down to Crazy Lady and me, and neither of us have many chips left, so we're both pot committed now.

The board after the turn: 9d 7h 4c Qc

Not a scary card for me. She pushes her last $40 in and I call. I have exactly $5 left.

The board after the river: 9d 7h 4c Qc 9s

That might be trouble, but with no more money to bet it's all over now. I flip over my Kings and she says "kings no good" and shows Qd 9h. I feel like a truck just ran me over. She called a $40 pre-flop with Q9o!? She called a $100 bet after the flop with a pair of nines and a queen kicker!? Part of me wants to just explode ala Phil Hellmuth, but to my credit I just say "nice hand".

I tip the dealer with my last $5 chip and go home to write about my shitty day.

Slow Rolls

Many player say that "slow rolling" is pretty much the worst thing you can do etiquette-wise at the poker table. A "slow roll" occurs when two players have a showdown, all the cards have been dealt, all the betting is done and it is time for the players to reveal their hole cards. If one player has a particularly strong hand (even an unbeatable hand) yet still waits for his opponent to show their cards first before revealing the stronger hand, he is said to be "slow rolling" - the height of bad poker manners. Why is it so bad? I guess it is rude to make your opponent wait to see that they are beat. I personally don't understand why people get so upset by it. I mean if a guy has a winning hand and wants to lord it over me, then whatever. I really don't care.

The point I try to remember is that for many other players, this is a serious issue, so I do my best to never slow roll. If I have a great hand, particularly the nuts, I try to reveal it the moment the hand is over. It is always nice to see what cards your opponent played - it gives you insight into how they play the game and that information could come in handy later - but I think it is even more important that you don't ruffle any feathers. Remember, the other poker players are your "customers" so treat them well. Don't insult them.

Eight Months and Eighty Two Posts Later...

In the last month or so I've gone on a run and I'm up over $1,500 for my last four sessions. My modest win of $102 yesterday was a milestone for me because it got me back to even in my lifetime. All the money I lost as an internet-poker-junkie has now been won back, and I am back to where I started financially speaking. I am neither richer or poorer but, I think, a whole lot wiser.

It seems appropriate to look back at the last eight months and see what has happened. In my first post, back in August 2010, I wrote about trying to avoid gambling addiction. This is unquestionably the most important subject having to do with poker. Gambling addiction destroys lives every single day. It is a monster that you must always be on guard against. In my experience there are two times when you are most susceptible to becoming a victim of gambling addiction as a poker player: when you are on a losing streak and when you are winning streak. Streaks, both winning and losing, often bring with them excessive emotional states; desperation and euphoria respectively. Being in either a desperate or a euphoric mental state is very dangerous, as impulse gets the upper hand of reason.

Back in January I was on a losing streak, and in order to regain my composure I had to take a break from the game. Now I am on a winning streak and I confess I want to play poker all the time right now. I'm smart enough (I hope) to realize my emotional state is unbalanced, so I must proceed from here with caution if I am to remain on the upside of zero.

Folding Top Two Pair

Went to the casino today with $100 to play a little $1/$2 no-limit hold 'em.

I folded about twenty hands when in middle position I was dealt AJo. I have developed a fondness lately for "garlic" (The Spanish word for garlic is "ajo") and was willing to play it, when the guy under the gun raised it to $15 and there was one caller in front of me. I called, although part of me was wondering if I was up against a stronger ace.

The Flop: Ad Jc 10d

Hoo-boy. I got top two pair! I am all set to put my money in when Player 1 bets $30. This is what I think - Player 1 probably has AK or AQ. The size of the bet indicates he thinks he is ahead but is afraid of the flush draw. Or maybe he is on a draw himself and is just being a tricky bastard. Either way I think I'm ahead, so as soon as this other guy folds I'm going to re-raise this sucker.

However Player 2 doesn't follow the script. He calls. Now I'm forced to think again. There is a poker saying that goes "it takes a stronger hand to call a bet than to make a bet" - in other words when someone bets there is a possibility they are, in my wife's words, being a beanie-pants. You can bet with a mediocre hand, but you shouldn't call with one! Player 2's call shows real strength. I think he may have Kd - which puts him on both the flush draw and the straight draw. Or maybe he already has the straight, or a set. Am I seriously thinking about laying down the top two pair? Heck, yes. I throw my garlic in the muck.

The turn: 6c

Player 1 checks. Player 2 checks.

The river: 9h

Player 1 bets $50 and Player 2 says "all in" - which represents a raise of about $300. It doesn't take Player 1 long to decide to fold, and when he does he shows that he had the garlic too! Player 2 flips his cards over - Kd Qd. He flopped the nut straight and one more diamond would have given him the nut flush. Also a Jd would have given him a royal flush (that was impossible because I folded the Jd, but he didn't know that.) I felt like I'd just dodged a bullet.

Not busting out on this hand was very, very good for me because about an hour later I was dealt AA when two other guys were both dealt KK. All three of us went all-in! My hand held up and I went from being down $40 to being up $80 in a single incredibly lucky hand. But I would not have been sitting at the table if I hadn't folded the top two pair earlier.

Luck is the residue of design.