When You're Beat, You're Beat

No matter how good your hand is, you have to let it go if you think you are beat. That means if you have an ace high flush and the there are two pair on the board, if you bet the pot and an opponent comes over the top on you, you'd better believe he has a full house. Your flush is as worthless as any two rags and as hard as it is, you have to lay them down.

This is one of the most difficult parts of the game; learning to make tough laydowns. Sometimes you know you are beat but it's just so hard to fold a nice hand! If this is a problem you have, then you must learn to take pride in your good folds. Donks want to be known for making hero calls and hero bluffs. You are not a donk. You want to be known for making great laydowns.

Yesterday I made the best pre-flop fold I have ever made in my life.

I brought $200 to a $1/$2 NLHE table. I had barely sat down when on my second or third hand I was dealt pocket kings. There was a straddle on board with one caller, so I raised it $10 (anymore would get too much attention) and the fellow on my left re-raised to $25. Sweet! The small blind, who only had about $60 called. What to do? There is only one hand I am afraid of, and the odds of being dealt AA are less than half of one percent, so I'm confident I'm ahead and it's time to punish these undisciplined louts. I make it $100 to go, committing half my stack, and I'm hoping that someone calls. However the guy on my left does not call - he goes all in with about $300. I should be elated, but instead I am filled with the cold certainty that this guy has the pocket aces. I don't care if the odds are 221 to 1 against it - I think a decent player (and I've played this guy before - he's very good) doesn't re-raise a bet 50 times the big blind with anything but AA. The guy in the small blind calls with the remaining $40 or so he has - whatever.

I think this guy has aces, but am I really going to fold pocket kings pre-flop? I don't think I've folded this hand pre-flop in my life, but I am convinced I am behind. I fold. As there can be no more betting, I show my kings. Lefty nods and says "great fold" and turns over the black aces. The guy in the small blind shows ace-king off, which means had I called I would have only a single king to hit. The dealer lays out the hand and there are no miracle flushes or straight to save the guy with AK. I thank the poker gods that the last king didn't show up either - that would have been hard to swallow.

So. I lost half my stack, but I didn't lose all of it. And I did gain something else - Respect. Knowing that I was now seen as a very disciplined player meant that the others really didn't want to tangle with me too much. I knuckled down and three hours later I had grown my remaining $100 to $330, leaving the table with a $130 profit. How did I do that? I played unbelievably tight, disciplined poker and I basically scared the crap out of everyone when I did enter a pot.

But even if hadn't made that comeback, the important thing is that I laid down a monster hand when I knew it was beat.

Know When to Fold 'Em

The games referred to today are all $1/$2 no-limit texas hold 'em.

A few weeks ago I was playing poorly, having negative thoughts and losing money.

I remember my last trip to the casino when nothing seemed to go right. One of the things that happens when you are not doing well is that you tend to start over playing your good hands in an attempt to force things to turn around - and that's exactly the trap I fell into. I was bleeding chips, and instead of tightening up I started playing more and more hands just hoping to get lucky. I entered a family pot with 4h 5c and when the flop came down 4s 5s 6c my only thought was protecting my two pair against a flush draw. I made a bet about twice the size of the pot and the guy right after me - a guy who had been playing tight and smart - moved all-in on me. When this sort of thing happens you have to accept that your opponent either flopped a straight or trips; those are the only hands a sane person would re-raise with in this situation - just as I put in a big bet to protect against the flush, he was sure he had a better hand and he had to bet big in case I was actually drawing to the flush myself. So what did I do? Like the desperate donkey I was, I called. Yes, he had the straight. No, I did not make a full house. I realized that making a call like that, among several other donkey plays I made that day, was a sign to take a break from the game.

Yesterday I went back to the Casino. I played very well, more than doubling the money I took in. But more important than making or losing money is whether or not you played properly, and as look back on that session I am very happy with the choices I made.

Know when you are probably beat. I was in late position with $140 in chips. I had been playing for twenty minutes without having a decent hand when I looked at AK offsuit. There were six limpers ahead of me, so I decided to raise it from $2 to $15. To my surprise three of my opponents called my rather large bet. One guy, a Grouchy Old Guy, even said to me "What do you have? Ace king?" When the flop came Ac Qd 3c I was pretty sure I was good, but like the previous week I was afraid of the flush draw. So I bet $50. Two guys folded, but Grouchy Old Guy didn't seem fazed at all. "Let's make it $150," he said while pushing a big stack forward. Now the the tilty-donkey me of a few weeks ago would have called - after all I'd already put $65 in to this pot - and I've got a pair of aces with a king kicker. Well that's donkey thinking. GOG knows I've probably got an ace, so he only makes that bet if he's sure he's got me beat. So why should I throw my last $75 bucks away too? I fold and GOG shows his pocket 3's - he flopped the set. Even while part of me is angry that my hand didn't hold up, I'm very proud that I had the discipline to lay that hand down. Instead of being busted out, I still had that $75 left.

Two and a half hours later I had grown that $75 to $370 and I left with a nice profit - which could never have happened if I had made that one donkey call.

Tournament Strategy: Folding Your Way to Victory

It may sound silly but folding is sometimes the hardest thing to do, and this can be particularly true in tournaments.

I was playing an on-line free roll tournament yesterday with a massive 10,000 entrants. The top 250 players won entry into a tournament where real money could be won. This made the strategy interesting: whether you finished 1st or 250th, you got the same thing.

After a couple hours I was in 35th spot in a field with about 1,500 left. My strategy was just to try to keep my stack from shrinking and stay in the top 250 until the end. I picked on shorter stacks and avoided bigger stacks but the most important thing I did was that I folded. I folded a lot. As planned, by the time we got down to 250 players I was among them.

While I was folding my way to victory, I watched numerous others with much bigger stacks than mine play way too many hands and get knocked out. They played aggressively to build their stacks, but could not go into fold mode when doing so would guarantee they finish "in the money".

Although the tournament I'm describing is unique in it's pay out structure, I believe it illustrates an important point: In tournaments generally speaking, folding has power. Sure the all-in raise gets all the glory, but the humble fold is the move you need to perfect to become a great tournament player.

Lose the battle, win the war.

When I was just starting out, I would make the following mistake all the time.

I would be dealt pocket queens, see a flop with a ace or a king in it (sometimes both), and I just couldn't fold my queens when an opponent made a big raise. Again and again I lost when it was obvious that an opponent had a higher pair than me. How could I have been so stupid as to make this call - and to make it repeatedly? The only way I could be ahead in this situation would be if my opponent was making a stone-cold bluff, and that is improbable. So why did I do it? I think it was because I was so excited to have a good hand pre-flop that I didn't want to admit to myself I was beat post-flop. I chose to ignore a cardinal rule of poker:

It is not the absolute strength of your cards that matter - it is the relative strength.

Pocket queens are, in absolute terms, excellent cards pre-flop. Only two hands are better, and the chances an opponent has AA or KK is less than 2%. But when the flop comes down with an Ace or a King in it, and one of your opponents seems very happy with that flop, then the relative value of your ladies is now very low.

Sure an opponent could be bluffing. But if the pot was raised pre-flop, then odds are good someone is holding an ace or a king. The fact is you are much more likely to talk yourself into believing your opponent is bluffing, than for him to actually be bluffing. This is because:

People want to believe in the best case scenario, even when it is unlikely.

In my last post I told about losing a big pot with JJ because I just didn't want to believe I was beaten. I was so intent on winning that hand that I put my remaining chips at risk. But poker is not about winning as many hands as you can, It's about winning the biggest pots you can and losing the smallest pots you can.

Once you have put chips into a pot they no longer belong to you. If you try desperate things to get back your chips, you are throwing good money after bad.

I remember clearly the first time I found the strength to throw away the ladies when an ace hit the flop. I lost that hand, of course, but a small thrill went through me as I realized I had taken the first step to becoming a good poker player.

Good players make good lay downs. The QQ example is just the beginning. As you get better, you will learn to recognize when your jack-high flush is worthless, when holding the "bad-end" of a straight is not good, and when your ace-high flush is beat by a full-house. You will be a great poker player because you will recognize the true relative value of your hands, and you will not throw good money after bad.