I've been feeling very uneasy the last few days about my previous posts regarding continuation bet bluffs. My unease centers around having given very general advice on situations when all sorts of specific circumstances could make my advice worthless, maybe even costly. Always remember that you are ultimately the best judge of what to do in any given situation.
I'm also uncomfortable with my statements that such-and-such has a 65% chance of making an opponent fold, whereas so-and-so has a 75% chance. Where did I get these stats? I dunno, just guessed from my own experience. The truth is I pulled these stats out of my ass to try to illustrate how opponents act, so just take them as ballpark figures, okay?
I'll steer away from questionable stats completely today
I want to finish this little lecture series by examining the best time to make a continuation bet - when you actually have a good hand! Because continuation bet bluffs are so common, you are pretty likely to get a call on a continuation bet if you do it properly. Just as you should not bluff into a big pot that your opponent has already invested a lot of chips in, this is the perfect pot to continue betting into with a strong hand. Your opponent will not want to fold and give up on the chips he's already bet and he is likely to convince himself you are just trying to steal the pot. He will want to believe this, so you should encourage his suspicion that you are bluffing. A great way to make people think you are bluffing is to draw a little attention to yourself. This is what I do; I take an extra 3 seconds to ponder my bet, then I announce "raise!" in a slightly louder than normal voice, and push my chips forward in a slightly more aggressive fashion. The point is to create a bit of confusion in your opponents mind. Get him thinking about what you are trying to get him to do. Of course I can use this trick only once in a while, but that's okay - the next time I want to get an opponent to call I'll do something else. Pull on my nose. Say "I never fold this hand'. Burp. It really doesn't matter what I do, as long as I draw attention to myself I am helping my opponent reach the conclusion that he wants to believe - that I am bluffing.
The truth is that it is a lot easier to get an opponent to call than to fold. This is another arguement for making those continuation bet bluffs - they set you up for the times when you really have the hands. If you have gotten away with a few continuation bet bluffs, you'd better be aware that the other players at the table suspect that you were bluffing (poker players are an untrusting lot!) so if you have planted that seed in their minds you are a gambler, then you can reap the rewards of their bad calls when you do have a hand.
Always think about what your opponents think about you.
Showing posts with label continuation bet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label continuation bet. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
The continuation bet: Part 3
If you've read parts 1 and 2 on the continuation bet, then you know that this post is going to be about the best time to make a continuation bet bluff.
The point I was trying to make in my last post is that the money your opponent puts into the pot before the flop acts like glue, sticking them to the pot even after the flop. The more money they put in, the more "stuck" they are to the pot and more difficult to push off with a continuation bet - be it a bluff or not. The opposite is also true and can make you money.
Let's say you are the first to act in a pot and raise only twice the big blind. Like in our last example, you get one caller and the blinds both fold. So now there are 5.5 bets in the pot; the 2 you put in, the 2 the caller put in, 0.5 from the small blind and 1 from the big blind. The flop comes and you miss it. Just like last time, I'm going to put the question before you in a larger font and italics:
Unlike last time, when we do the math on this example we see the answer is yes.
In my experience, opponents are less likely to defend small pots that they have not invested a lot in, so you can expect have opponents to fold 75% of the time in this situation. So let's say you make your continuation bet about 3/4 the pot - that's another 4 bets you are putting at risk to win 5.5 bets.
If your opponent folds, you have only won an additional 3.5 bets more than you started the hand with - 5.5 minus the two bets you put in yourself. Run this 100 times, then 75 times you should win 2.5 bets. You can therefore expect to win 75 x 2.5, or 187.5 bets over 100 hands.
If the opponent doesn't fold, as he won't do 25% of the time, the situation is not as dire as it was the previous example - you still have a good chance of winning some pots. Still let's be very pessimistic and write them all off as losses; you'll lose the 2 bets you made before the flop, plus the 3.5 bets you made the continuation bet bluff for a total 5.5 bets you lose. Run it 100 times, then 25 times you should lose 5.5 bets. You can therefore expect to lose 25 x 5.5 or 137.5 bets over 100 hands. Subtract 137.5 bets from your winnings of 187.5 and you come up ahead 50 bets. So you profit.
Now before you go running off making this play all the time, expecting to make money, there are a few other things that have to be in place before you make this play. You know that 75% success rate? It only applies if all the following factors are in place:
1) Your opponent is tight. Meaning he plays few hands and only continues if he thinks he is ahead.
2) Your opponent must believe you are a tight, methodical player. In other words you have to have been at the table for a while and shown yourself to be someone who only bets when they have the cards. Once you feel that the other players see you as ultra-conservative, then you can begin to take advantage of your image. If you have been gambling and bluffing -and everybody knows it- you won't get many folds. In fact a good player might re-raise you with nothing in their hand because they know you are bluffing.
3) You don't pull this move too often. People will catch on.
4) Your opponents stack size is important too. If your opponent has a big stack, she will be more willing to continue the hand for a small bet, so be careful. If your opponent has only a very few chips left, then they might also call - they have lost so much already they don't care about losing a bit more.
The point I was trying to make in my last post is that the money your opponent puts into the pot before the flop acts like glue, sticking them to the pot even after the flop. The more money they put in, the more "stuck" they are to the pot and more difficult to push off with a continuation bet - be it a bluff or not. The opposite is also true and can make you money.
Let's say you are the first to act in a pot and raise only twice the big blind. Like in our last example, you get one caller and the blinds both fold. So now there are 5.5 bets in the pot; the 2 you put in, the 2 the caller put in, 0.5 from the small blind and 1 from the big blind. The flop comes and you miss it. Just like last time, I'm going to put the question before you in a larger font and italics:
Should you try to take the pot right here with a continuation bet bluff?
Unlike last time, when we do the math on this example we see the answer is yes.
In my experience, opponents are less likely to defend small pots that they have not invested a lot in, so you can expect have opponents to fold 75% of the time in this situation. So let's say you make your continuation bet about 3/4 the pot - that's another 4 bets you are putting at risk to win 5.5 bets.
If your opponent folds, you have only won an additional 3.5 bets more than you started the hand with - 5.5 minus the two bets you put in yourself. Run this 100 times, then 75 times you should win 2.5 bets. You can therefore expect to win 75 x 2.5, or 187.5 bets over 100 hands.
If the opponent doesn't fold, as he won't do 25% of the time, the situation is not as dire as it was the previous example - you still have a good chance of winning some pots. Still let's be very pessimistic and write them all off as losses; you'll lose the 2 bets you made before the flop, plus the 3.5 bets you made the continuation bet bluff for a total 5.5 bets you lose. Run it 100 times, then 25 times you should lose 5.5 bets. You can therefore expect to lose 25 x 5.5 or 137.5 bets over 100 hands. Subtract 137.5 bets from your winnings of 187.5 and you come up ahead 50 bets. So you profit.
Now before you go running off making this play all the time, expecting to make money, there are a few other things that have to be in place before you make this play. You know that 75% success rate? It only applies if all the following factors are in place:
1) Your opponent is tight. Meaning he plays few hands and only continues if he thinks he is ahead.
2) Your opponent must believe you are a tight, methodical player. In other words you have to have been at the table for a while and shown yourself to be someone who only bets when they have the cards. Once you feel that the other players see you as ultra-conservative, then you can begin to take advantage of your image. If you have been gambling and bluffing -and everybody knows it- you won't get many folds. In fact a good player might re-raise you with nothing in their hand because they know you are bluffing.
3) You don't pull this move too often. People will catch on.
4) Your opponents stack size is important too. If your opponent has a big stack, she will be more willing to continue the hand for a small bet, so be careful. If your opponent has only a very few chips left, then they might also call - they have lost so much already they don't care about losing a bit more.
5) Even though you missed the flop, it is best to try to take the pot post-flop when you have some kind of draw. That way if you do get called, you still might hit your draw and win a larger pot.
My next post will be my last on this topic. I promise.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
The continuation bet: Part 2
Required reading for today's lesson is The continuation bet: Part 1.
Today, instead of using examples with dollar figures, I'm going to talk in terms of "bets". Let's say the amount of the big blind is "one bet" and the small blind, therefore, is a "half-bet". It doesn't matter if the big blind is $500 or $2, for the sake of the examples we are going to use. A bet is a bet. Thinking of the size of pots as bets rather than actual dollar amounts is a good practice to get into because you are more likely to make proper poker decisions when you see things mathematically, rather than emotionally. People tend to get emotional when they see the size of the call they have to make as, say, a mortgage payment. Generally in poker, what is true is true regardless the size of the blinds.
As promised I'm going to look at when a continuation bet bluff is most profitable and when it is least profitable. Please bear in mind I'm making general statements here - I'm talking about what works and doesn't work most of the time.
That said, you want to make a continuation bet bluff in situations you feel your opponent is most likely to fold. This sounds obvious, but it is not always easy to identify the situations where you are most likely to get your opponent to lay their cards down. By far the biggest single factor to consider is:
How much money has my opponent already put into the pot?
The more he or she has put in, the harder it will be to get them to fold.
Let's say you raised the pot 4 times the big blind, get one caller, and the blinds both fold. Now their are 9.5 bets in the pot; the 4 you put in, the 4 the caller put in, 0.5 from the small blind and 1 from the big blind.
The flop comes without an Ace or a King, so you feel fairly confident your opponent missed, which his good because you missed too. At 8.5 bets, this is a nice pot (if the big blind was $10, for example, the pot is $85) so the question you have to answer is;
Today, instead of using examples with dollar figures, I'm going to talk in terms of "bets". Let's say the amount of the big blind is "one bet" and the small blind, therefore, is a "half-bet". It doesn't matter if the big blind is $500 or $2, for the sake of the examples we are going to use. A bet is a bet. Thinking of the size of pots as bets rather than actual dollar amounts is a good practice to get into because you are more likely to make proper poker decisions when you see things mathematically, rather than emotionally. People tend to get emotional when they see the size of the call they have to make as, say, a mortgage payment. Generally in poker, what is true is true regardless the size of the blinds.
As promised I'm going to look at when a continuation bet bluff is most profitable and when it is least profitable. Please bear in mind I'm making general statements here - I'm talking about what works and doesn't work most of the time.
That said, you want to make a continuation bet bluff in situations you feel your opponent is most likely to fold. This sounds obvious, but it is not always easy to identify the situations where you are most likely to get your opponent to lay their cards down. By far the biggest single factor to consider is:
How much money has my opponent already put into the pot?
The more he or she has put in, the harder it will be to get them to fold.
Let's say you raised the pot 4 times the big blind, get one caller, and the blinds both fold. Now their are 9.5 bets in the pot; the 4 you put in, the 4 the caller put in, 0.5 from the small blind and 1 from the big blind.
The flop comes without an Ace or a King, so you feel fairly confident your opponent missed, which his good because you missed too. At 8.5 bets, this is a nice pot (if the big blind was $10, for example, the pot is $85) so the question you have to answer is;
Should you try to take the pot right here with a continuation bet bluff?
If we only consider the math behind this puzzle, then I'm afraid the answer is no. Let's do the math:
I have previously stated that continuation bets (whether you have a hand or not), cause opponents to fold 70% of the time, and I think this is true on average, but the bigger the pot, the harder it gets to push people off it and when you opponent has already put up 4 bets, he is not likely to fold very easily. With a pot this big, I think a 65% success rate is more realistic. So let's say you make your continuation bet of 3/4 the pot - that's another 6.5 bets you are putting at risk to win 8.5 bets. With a 65% chance of success, this seems worthwhile until you run the numbers.
If your opponent folds, you have only won an additional 4.5 bets more than you started the hand with. True the pot you stole was 8.5 bets, but remember you put in 4 of those bets in the first place.
If we imagine running this situation 100 times, then 65 times you should win 4.5 bets. You can therefore expect to win 65 x 4.5, or 292.5 bets over 100 hands.
But what if the opponent doesn't fold, as he won't do 35% of the time? Well, to put it rather bluntly, you are probably going to lose most of those hands. And not only are going to lose the 4 bets you made before the flop, you are going to lose the 6.5 bets you made the continuation bet with, that's 10.5 bets you lose.
If we imagine running this situation 100 times, then 35 times you should lose 10.5 bets. You can therefore expect to lose 35 x 10.5 or 367.5 bets over 100 hands. Subtract 367.5 bets from your winnings of 292.5 and....oh my, you lose 75 bets over 100 hands.
Okay I've maybe simplified things a little too much to make a point. But I believe the point is valid - how much you have to put at risk to win a pot, and what percentage of the time you can expect your move to work, are vital considerations you can't ignore if you want to show a profit in the long run.
My next post will show a much better time to use the continuation bet bluff. One that is profitable.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
The continuation bet: Part 1
Because I don't like to limp, I will sometimes raise with borderline cards in middle or late position. Often I can steal the blinds this way. I don't do it too often because my opponents will catch on, and I usually only do it if the players acting after me are tight. Often, as I say, I can pick-up the blinds, but just as often I will find I get a caller, so I will see the flop against one opponent.
The flop is dealt and I miss it completely. But this is not a tragedy, because my opponent probably missed it completely too. That's just the way it goes in poker - if you are playing against one guy, then he probably doesn't catch anything on the flop (but if you are playing against two or more, then chances are that one of them caught a piece of the flop). So what do I do? I bet about 3/4 the pot. This bet is commonly referred to as a "continuation bet". Before the flop I showed strength by raising, so now I continue to show strength by making a healthy bet.
I do not have statistics, but I would say that my opponents fold 70% the time when I make a continuation bet like this. Those times when my opponent calls, well then I must proceed with caution. Too many situational differences exist for me to make a general statement of what to do here. When an opponent re-raises you, you are sure to be behind and should fold.
Don't continuation bet indiscriminately. It works best against the tight opponent; one who does not play a lot of hands and who will not continue a hand unless they have a good chance of winning. There certainly situations when making a continuation bet without a good hand is a bad idea. In the next few post I will examine when, and when not, to continuation bet when you don't have a hand.
The flop is dealt and I miss it completely. But this is not a tragedy, because my opponent probably missed it completely too. That's just the way it goes in poker - if you are playing against one guy, then he probably doesn't catch anything on the flop (but if you are playing against two or more, then chances are that one of them caught a piece of the flop). So what do I do? I bet about 3/4 the pot. This bet is commonly referred to as a "continuation bet". Before the flop I showed strength by raising, so now I continue to show strength by making a healthy bet.
I do not have statistics, but I would say that my opponents fold 70% the time when I make a continuation bet like this. Those times when my opponent calls, well then I must proceed with caution. Too many situational differences exist for me to make a general statement of what to do here. When an opponent re-raises you, you are sure to be behind and should fold.
Don't continuation bet indiscriminately. It works best against the tight opponent; one who does not play a lot of hands and who will not continue a hand unless they have a good chance of winning. There certainly situations when making a continuation bet without a good hand is a bad idea. In the next few post I will examine when, and when not, to continuation bet when you don't have a hand.
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