A Little Math Trick

You are in a tournament and have made the final table; nine players are left all with roughly the same amount of chips. One of your opponents, Jimmy, is a tight player you feel you have a great read on.

While sitting in middle position you are dealt QQ and you open the betting with a wager three times the big blind. Jimmy, on your left, pushes all in and everyone else folds. From your experience you are certain that Jimmy is holding either AA, KK or AK. If you call and he has rockets or cowboys, you are probably looking at a ninth place finish. If you call and he has AK, you are a slight favourite to become the chip leader- an upside that would make you take the gamble if you thought he was likely to have AK. So what do you do?

On the face of it, the answer seems to be "fold". If Jimmy has either AA, KK or AK, then that means there is a 2 out of 3 chance he has AA or KK, right?

Well, no. Actually it is more likely he has AK.

Let's do the math: There are 6 possible combinations of cards out of the deck that give him AA:

Ac Ah, Ad As, As Ah, As Ac, Ah Ad, Ad Ac

There are 6 possible combinations of cards in the deck that give KK:

Kc Kh, Kd Ks, Ks Kh, Ks Kc, Kh Kd, Kd Kc

However there are 16 combinations of cards that give Jimmy AK:

Ac Kc, Ac Kd, Ac Ks, Ac Kh

Ad Kc, Ad Kd, Ad Ks, Ad Kh

As Kc, As Kd, As Ks, As Kh

Ah Kc, Ah Kd, Ah Ks, Ah Kh

Of 28 different combinations of cards that give Jimmy AA, KK or AK 16 of them make the AK and only 12 make an over pair to your QQ. There is a 57% chance you are ahead of Jimmy right now.

Whether or not you decide it is a worthwile call, the point is to remember when calculating your chances against the various hands in your opponents range that the odds of being dealt any two specific cards of different ranks is much greater than the odds of being dealt a specific pair.

Bits of Poker Wisdom

I have read quite a few books and blogs about poker and I'd like to share some of the advice that I find particularly compelling.

From Willie Nelson: Perhaps the best piece of advice is to be yourself. If you try to emulate others, you will likely just do a poor job of it. I used to have difficulty when I had a big stack of chips in a tournament. I knew from the books I read that in that position I was supposed to bully the small stacks around, so I tried to do that. But I was not a good bully. Being a bully is unnatural for me, so I am unconvincing and ineffective when I try to play that role. Willie Nelson said something to the effect of "If you are a butterfly, don't try to be an eagle." What he meant was you are always most effective when you are true to own nature. Willie was talking about poker. The great thing about poker is that a smart butterfly can beat a hundred sharks, lions and eagles.

From Chris Ferguson: Never stop learning. The moment you think you have the game figured out is the moment it has passed you by. You can only be your best if your are constantly trying to get better.

From Jennifer Harman: Everybody, even the worst players, does one thing very well. You can learn something from even the worst players.

From Howard Lederer: Be a well-rounded human being. Once you grasp the basics of the game, then understanding human nature is the key to success at the poker table. By sitting in a casino or on an internet poker site for 60 hours a week, you are actually limiting your experiences too much. Read philosophy, do yoga, learn to play the violin. Any number of activities that stretch your mind in different ways will give you insights that your leather-assed opponents may never have.

From Antonio Esfandiari: Think about what your opponent is trying to get you to do, and do the opposite. Usually profitable. It is good to always be asking yourself, "What is he trying to get me to do?" After awhile you will find you can get better at predicting your opponents actions. Of course if you always do the opposite, he's going to catch on.

Also from Antonio Esfandiari: Never tell bad beat stories.

Also from Antonio Esfandiari: Never bet a lot to win a little.

From Mike Caro: Never call "poker-clack." "Poker-clack" is that clucking sound of disapproval people make with their tongues. If someone is raising the pot and they make that sound, fold.

These are just the few that came to my mind this morning. More tomorrow.

Bankroll Management: Part 2

Note the "Part 2" in the title? That means go read Part 1.

Okay, you may now have an intellectual appreciation of the importance of bankroll management, however this is too important a topic to leave it at that. So today I'm going to tell you a personal story of bad bankroll management and its disastrous results. This is a story I have not even told my wife because it shames me so much, but I really want you to understand why I think bankroll management is the crucial element that separates the financial winners from the frequently broke.

How I lost $400 on a single hand trying to impress Jesus.

I started playing poker for money on the internet with an initial deposit of only $100. I played well at first and probably had more than my share of luck as well. After a few weeks my bankroll had grown to about $450, and I was a little too confident in my poker skills.

One day my dad, who was living with us, came to me and said. "Hey, I'm playing poker on-line and I see your hero is playing." I went down to his suite to see what he was talking about, and sure enough, Chris "Jesus" Ferguson was playing on the poker site I used. Now I would not say Ferguson was "my hero", but he is certainly a player I admire. He was the winner of the World Series of Poker main event in 2000, a feat that was chronicled in the great book, Positively Fifth Street by James McManus. Now, here he was in all his animated avatar glory. Well, actually his avatar looked more like a cross between Waylon Jennings and an Orthodox Jew, but still, it was Chris Ferguson. I was surprised to see an empty seat at the table, usually when a poker celebrity like Jesus sits down at a table there is a long line of wanna-be's waiting for the chance to take a shot at him, but here an empty chair sat. Invitingly. I checked the limit, and it was much, much higher than I had ever played - in fact the minimum amount I could bring to the table was $400 - almost my entire bankroll. But when will you ever have a chance to play poker with Chris Ferguson again? So I sat down, clicked on the empty seat, and took almost all of my bankroll with me.

I was determined to play my very best. I remember wanting to impress Chris with my skill. Why did I want to do that? Well, it's a fairly common reaction when one come in contact with recognized master. Bobby Baldwin calls it "fancy play syndrome": regularly good poker players suddenly try all sorts of "creative" moves in an attempt to impress the famous poker pro. So there I sat, way over my limit, determined to show Jesus my brilliance.

Fold. Fold. Fold. Fold. Fold. I was playing tight, waiting for the right cards. It wasn't long before I found myself in middle position with pocket Jacks. One guy limped in ahead of me. I had played enough to know how tricky JJ is and how it was also very probable that no one had a better hand than me at this point. I made a large bet, hoping to maybe get one caller and then take it from there. I got my one caller - the guy on my immediate left- and everyone else folded. The flop came down - J A 6 (I don't remember the suits). I flopped trip Jacks! My heart started beating in my throat. I put out a bet of half the pot, and the guy re-raised me! Now, sure he might have pocket aces, but that was a remote possibility. More likely he had AK or AQ or AJ. He hit top pair with a good kicker and was not giving up the pot. I moved all my chips into the pot. He called and turned over....two aces.

I suddenly felt like throwing up. I can't remember what came on the turn and the river, but they were not jacks. All my chips went to the guy on my left as I stared, dumb-founded at the screen. My dad, who was watching television, called over to me. "So, how's it going?"

So what was my mistake? Believe me, I have played this hand over and over in my mind and I think if happened again I probably would play it much the same way. If you are to timid to go all-in when you flop trips, then you are probably playing too tight to be a winner. No, my mistake had nothing to do with the hand. Sometimes you can do everything right, and still lose. My big boneheaded move was to take almost all my bankroll to the table.

So, that lesson cost me $400, and I'm giving it to you for free.

I wish I could say I never played over my limit again, but that would be a lie. Time and time again I built up my bankroll by playing well and practicing good bankroll management, only to blow it in a few hours at a much higher limit. For me, there is something about internet poker that is too intoxicating - I have to keep moving up to higher limits even though my bankroll can not support it. Finally, I had to just give up on putting money into internet poker sites altogether. I find it much easier to practice bankroll management at the real live poker tables, where moving up to higher limits is not an impulsive move I could make with the click of a mouse.

The rules of bankroll management are simple, but they are also very difficult to adhere to.

Master bankroll management and you will have the discipline to learn everything else you will need to be successful.

Bankroll Management: Part 1

"The first rule about making money is not losing money"- Warren Buffett.

Bankroll management is maybe the least talked about aspects of the game but is just as important as any thing else you have control over. Many players who consistently win at poker find themselves broke from time to time because they can't manage their bankroll properly.

A bankroll is that amount of money that finances your poker activities. You bankroll does not include money you need for rent, food or anything else. It is a very good idea to keep your bankroll separate from the rest of your money. It will make it much easier to track your winnings and losses. If you lose your bankroll, well that sucks, but you can not play poker with money you need for rent, food or anything else. This is not a suggestion, this is the way it has to be, okay? If you can't deal with that then you have gambling problem my friend. If you have a $1,000 bankroll, take $50 to the poker table and lose it, that means your bankroll is now $950. If instead of losing, you won $250 dollars, then it is up to you if you want to increase your bankroll to $1,250 or take your profit and go out for a nice dinner.

So why do so many really good poker players blow their bankrolls? Bad bankroll management is almost always to blame. People who have learned to be smart and disciplined while sitting at the table are often undisciplined about the amount of money they take to the table. A bit of bad luck, or just one or two bad moves and all the chips are gone. Now they may start playing angry, mad that some idiot hit a two-outer on the river to beat them, or they play at a higher level to quickly win back what they lost. When this happens a bankroll that has been carefully built over weeks or even months can disappear in an hour. It happens all the time.


How can you keep it from happening to you?

Let's forget all about poker for a second. Let's imagine a new card game called "Tyler Draw". The rules of Tyler Draw are very simple: There are two players, me (Tyler) and whoever I'm playing against. No cards are dealt to either player - instead the dealer turns over just one card. If the card is a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 my opponent wins. If the card is an 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king, or Ace I win. Nice game huh? Wanna play?

In Tyler draw, I will win 53.85% percent of the time, because 7 out of 13 cards make me a winner, and only 6 out of 13 cards make me a loser.

So let's say I have a $100 bankroll. One guy wants to play Tyler Draw against me for $1 a hand and another guy wants to play Tyler Draw against me for $100 dollars a hand. Who should I play? Well I only have $100, so if I play for $100 a hand there is a 46.15% chance I will lose my whole bankroll on one hand. The odds are only slightly in my favour, so why take an unnecessary risk? There is virtually no risk of me losing my entire $100 bankroll if I only wager $1 per hand. In fact the risk is so small, I really should take that "virtually" out. The more hands of Tyler Draw I play, the greater the certainty that I will make money.

Does this principle make sense? Now I know what you are thinking; What kind of sucker would be the "other guy" at a game of Tyler Draw? Well, walk into a casino. Are you in a casino now? Great. Okay, look around. See all those people playing the slot machines? See the sign saying Our Loose Slots Pay back 92%? Well, that's about the same odds they would get playing Tyler Draw.

But today's lesson isn't about the bad decisions other people make - it's about teaching you not to make bad bankroll management decisions. So let's apply what we've learned so far to the game of poker. Let's pretend you are one of the best poker players in the world. You have a bankroll of $100,000. Do you:

A: Take $50,000 to a $250/$500 No-Limit hold 'em table.
B: Take $5,000 to a $25/$50 No-Limit hold 'em table.

Knowing you will probably make money because you are so good, you may choose option A in order to maximize your profit. But as good as you are, you might get unlucky and lose half you bankroll. Better to take a seat at the smaller limit table. If you are really good you will probably win, an if you get unlucky only 5% of your bankroll is exposed.

What is the maximum amount you should ever bring to a table? The very disciplined professionals say 5% but some will say as much as 10%.

Set a limit on how much you bring to a table.

Bankroll management is not easy, but it is vital. So vital that I'm going to write about it in my next post too!

Pot Odds Primer

Today's lesson is for the newbies. You grizzled pros can skip this one, or better yet add your own comments if you have something important to say.

The Basics of Pot Odds

You are holding two hearts in a game of hold 'em, and the flop comes down with two hearts in it. There is $10 in the pot, and only one opponent in the hand with you. Your opponents bets $5. Do you call?

Many considerations may go in to your decision. How your opponent has been playing and relative stack-sizes may factor in. But the question most players ask themselves is "Am I getting good pot odds to make this call?"

What exactly do we mean by pot odds and why is understanding pot odds so important? In our present example, we are faced with the decision of making a $5 call on a $15 pot ($10 plus the other guys' $5 bet). In other words we stand to win 3 dollars for every dollar we wager. We're getting 3 to 1 odds here, or about 33%. So what are the odds, if we see the turn and the river, that we are going to complete the flush? About 36% (check out the previous post, What are the Odds?, to see how I came up with this number). So your chance of making this flush are not great, but you are getting good pot odds, so you usually should call the $5 bet.

Think of it this way. If you play the hand out 100 times, then you should lose about 64 times and win 36 times. Your total losses will be $320 (64 x your $5 call), and your total winnings will be $540 (36 x the $15 pot). Subtracting your losses from your gains and you'll see you come out $220 ahead. So you should feel alright about making that call.

There are other factors to consider however; things that if you don't pay attention to, you could lose a lot of dough.

Beware of a better flush

In my example I said you are holding two hearts, but I didn't say which two hearts. Consider that your opponent may have two higher hearts than you. Unlikely, but possible and in poker the unlikely happens quite frequently. If your opponent is experienced and thinks they have a better hand than you, then they will not give you good pot odds to hit a flush, but if they themselves are drawing to a flush they may make a small bet in the hopes of keeping you from making a bigger bet. Ask yourself why he's making such a small bet, and giving good pot odds, with an obvious flush draw on the board.

Beware of the full house

No matter what three cards come down on a flop, it is always possible an opponent hit two pair or even three of a kind. Think about it. A flop of 4h 8h jd looks harmless, but your opponent could have 4c 8d (particularly if he was in the big blind and saw the flop for free) or even pocket 4's, 8's or J's. A lot of people will play any pocket pair in the hopes of a big payday.

So while you are drawing to a flush, your opponent may be drawing to a full house. Just remember It is impossible for him to get a full house, no matter what his hole cards are, unless there is a pair on the board. So if, as they say, the "board pairs" then be prepared to throw your hand away - even if you've made the flush. A lot of people simply can not lay down a flush in this situation and that's why a lot of money is won and lost with a flush against a full house. Remember, great players make great lay downs.

Look out for a shove on the turn

A lot of good players will make a small bet after the flop with the intention on luring you to call. You think you have a 36% chance of hitting a flush, but remember those odds are only good if you see the turn and the river. If a heart does not come on the turn your opponent might then make such a big bet that the pot odds are now against you. This scenario can happen in no-limit hold 'em, and illustrates why it is much easier to play hands like flush draws in limit hold 'em.

Whew! I really blathered on today didn't I? Well, I hope that there is something in there you can use.

What are the Odds?

I've got some good news and some bad news. First the bad news: if you want to be a winning poker player, you are going to have to learn the basic math of the game. Now the good news: there is a very simple way to roughly calculate some of the odds you need to know to make good decisions.

Walk through this with me. You are holding Ah 4h in a game of hold 'em and the flop comes down 3h 6d 10h. You are one heart away from a "nut flush" (a flush that can't be beat by a higher ranking flush - If you were holding Kh 4h in this situation, you'd be drawing to a king high flush and could possibly be beat if the Ah is in an opponents' hand). So what are the odds the turn or the river will bring that heart you need? Here's an easy way to roughly estimate your odds:

First count the number of "outs" you have. An "out" is a card that would complete the hand you are drawing to. In this case, any of the 9 remaining hearts are your outs. You have two opportunities to hit your flush - once on the turn, and once on the river, so multiply your 9 hearts by the two draws to come and you have 18. Double this number and guess what? 36% is pretty close to your chance of hitting your nut flush if you see both the turn and the river. The actual odds are 34.97%, but this easy "out counting" method gets you pretty close.

So, you have 5h 7d and the flop is Ah 4c 8s. You'd like to know what the odds of a 6 hitting on the turn or river are, wouldn't you? 4 (the number of 6's - your outs) multiplied by 2 (the draws to come) and doubled informs you that you have 16% chance of hitting your "inside straight". If you miss the six on the turn, the odds of catching a 6 on the river are only about 8%.

This is a very handy way to calculate odds if you not a math geek.

Some Basic Stuff...

I want to write to the beginning poker player, at least at first. I am really hoping that those less experienced than I will benefit from my blog. If you are such a person and don't understand a concept or the lingo I am using please make a comment and I will try to clarify. Similarly, if you disagree with me on anything, please comment! I really want to improve my game, and would rather have my misconceptions exposed here than at the poker table.

Ranks and suits

For now I will use this short-hand when indicating specific cards: Ranks are pretty obvious -A, K, Q, J, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, & 2. "h" means hearts, "d" means diamonds, "c" means clubs and "s" means spades. So "As" is the ace of spades and "2c" is the two of clubs". Simple, right? Sometimes the exact suits are irrelevant to the hand under discussion and it is only important to know if two cards are suited or not. In such cases "s" means suited (two cards of matching suit) and "o" means off-suit (two cards of different suits). You will find this short hand is universally used in poker blogs and magazines. "A8o" means ace and 8 off-suit. "QJs" means queen jack suited. Clear?

Position

It will be important to indicate where at the table you and your opponents will be sitting. Again I will use common phrases and shorthand to indicate position. In a nine player hold 'em game, the first player to act (sitting to the left of the big blind) is referred to as being "under the gun" (utg), the next two are in early position (ep), the next two are in middle position (mp), and although both the next two are in late position (lp), the one guy sitting to the right of the small blind is "the button" (b). The button is the strategically best place to be sitting. Next come the small blind (sb) and the big blind (bb). Make sense?

It's no-limit hold' em, unless otherwise indicated.

I am going to be writing (at least at first) almost exclusively about hold 'em - the dominant form of poker. If I don't specify what kind of poker I'm talking about, just assume it's hold 'em. I will mostly be talking about no-limit hold 'em, but may talk about limit hold 'em as well. If I don't specify, assume it's no-limit.