So, here I am with $45 in chips at a loose aggressive table playing $1/$2 NLHE. I have a few options now, which I will lay out from smartest to dumbest:
Option 1: The smartest thing to do might be to just call it a bad day, go home and save that $45. But I've only been playing poker for an hour and I just don't feel like leaving yet.
Option 2: I could buy more chips with the $60 in my pocket, which would bring my back to that ideal starting stack of around $100.
Option 3: I could just keep playing with the $45 and hope I can double up.
The reason option 3 is the worst is because when your stack gets this small, you don't have many options, particularly at a loose aggressive table where any hand you play may have you pot committed. Your only real move is an all-in preflop which takes us away from the world of skillful poker and towards the world of hope-for-the-best gambling. So which option do I choose? Option 3 of course! This will be mistake #2 for me this day - or #3 if you really hate the call I made in the previous post. So I'll sit here with $45 looking for a hand I can take a chance on. And hoping it won't take too long because even $3 trips through the blinds will whittle me down pretty fast.
I get lucky and catch pocket tens a few hands later. I move all-in, and my heart sinks when I get two callers. Heads-up against two over cards I'm a slight favourite, but with two opponents I might be looking at three or four over-cards, or something even worse - a pocket pair higher than mine. When an ace comes on the flop I know I'm doomed - for sure one of these guys has an ace. Maybe they both do. The turn and the river are small cards and both my opponents check the hand down, which gives me hope. I show my hand and, miracle of miracles, the other two guys toss their cards in the muck. Pure dumb luck and I triple up!
So I survive mistake #2. Now I have $135 -almost as much as I started with. I should see this as a sign to start playing smarter, but mistakes have a way of multiplying - once you start making them they just seem to snowball.
Stay tuned.
One of the worst things that can happen to you at the poker table: Your mistake pays off.
ReplyDeleteNow you have incentive to play badly again, hoping lady luck remains on your side. The dopamine dump from hitting your inside straight, or landing the wheel with 23o against AA, can override all the boring, smart, +EV plays you've ever made.