Thinking through the hand

Here is an interesting hand I witnessed on my last trip to the casino - I am going to try to reconstruct it for you, because I believe it demonstrates how good poker players think.

The players involved are Tom and Robin. Both are very good players who play aggressively. Robin tends to bluff a lot, but because he bets the same whether he has a hand or not, it is difficult to tell when he is bluffing. Tom plays a tighter range of starting hands than Robin does and bluffs less frequently, but he times his moves well - bluffing only when he senses weakness.

The game is $1/$2 NLHE, and when the following hand occurred both players had about $500 in chips. A couple of players limped in when Robin, in late position, made his standard pre-flop raise of $20. We will find out later that Robin is holding K4 off - a pretty crappy hand. I would not suggest anyone do what Robin did here, but Robin is such a good post-flop player that he can often win on a later street with inferior cards.

It folds to Tom who is in the big blind. Tom knows Robin could have just about anything here, so he decides to call. Unfortunately we will never see what Tom's hole cards are. The flop is Ac Kc 8h. Tom checks. Robin has hit middle pair. He thinks that if Tom has an ace he would probably bet it to protect against the flush draw. So Robin thinks his King might be good, but he is worried Tom might also have a king with a better kicker. Robin decides to put out a "feeler bet" -in this case a $20 bet which is roughly half the pot. Robin thinks Tom will probably fold if he has nothing, and will probably raise with an ace. Tom, however, chooses to call. What does this mean? Robin suspects Tom either has two clubs or a king - so he really has no clue if he is ahead or behind. Of course Tom would also just call here if he had a monster hand like AA, KK or AK.

Although we never learn what Tom has, we do know that he has neither a king or an ace - because if he had he would have won the hand. So why did he call the flop? Tom knows Robin could have anything - and he also knows (like I know) that Robin tends to give up on his bluffs if his opponent shows no sign of backing down. Tom, I think, is getting ready to scoop the pot with a bluff of his own.

The turn is 8d. Tom checks. Robin checks. Why? I don't know! Tom, I have noticed, likes to take down pots on the turn. I believe he was hoping to check-raise. Robin has no idea where he is, so he checks.

There is about $85 in the pot when the river comes, making the board Ac Kc 8h 8d 9s. Tom checks. Robin bets $50 and Tom re-raises to $200. Wow!

So what do you think Tom has? What do you think Robin will do?

Think about it for a second. Robin thinks about it for quite a while. He decides Tom does not have an ace. For whatever reason he has concluded that this big bet on the river is either a stone cold bluff, or a sign that this is going to be a split pot. The pair of eights and the ace on the board has made Robins' weak kicker irrelevant. Robin decides to call. It seems an amazing call to make, but if you think through the hand the way Robin did it makes sense.

Robin shows his hand and Tom is astounded. "How can you call with just a king?" he asks andd luckily for me and you, Robin tells everyone exactly what he was thinking. Which I just re-wrote for you here.

Tom disgustedly throws his cards in the muck and Robin rakes in a big pot.