What are the Odds?

I've got some good news and some bad news. First the bad news: if you want to be a winning poker player, you are going to have to learn the basic math of the game. Now the good news: there is a very simple way to roughly calculate some of the odds you need to know to make good decisions.

Walk through this with me. You are holding Ah 4h in a game of hold 'em and the flop comes down 3h 6d 10h. You are one heart away from a "nut flush" (a flush that can't be beat by a higher ranking flush - If you were holding Kh 4h in this situation, you'd be drawing to a king high flush and could possibly be beat if the Ah is in an opponents' hand). So what are the odds the turn or the river will bring that heart you need? Here's an easy way to roughly estimate your odds:

First count the number of "outs" you have. An "out" is a card that would complete the hand you are drawing to. In this case, any of the 9 remaining hearts are your outs. You have two opportunities to hit your flush - once on the turn, and once on the river, so multiply your 9 hearts by the two draws to come and you have 18. Double this number and guess what? 36% is pretty close to your chance of hitting your nut flush if you see both the turn and the river. The actual odds are 34.97%, but this easy "out counting" method gets you pretty close.

So, you have 5h 7d and the flop is Ah 4c 8s. You'd like to know what the odds of a 6 hitting on the turn or river are, wouldn't you? 4 (the number of 6's - your outs) multiplied by 2 (the draws to come) and doubled informs you that you have 16% chance of hitting your "inside straight". If you miss the six on the turn, the odds of catching a 6 on the river are only about 8%.

This is a very handy way to calculate odds if you not a math geek.