Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Small stakes - big pots.

There is an assumption that if you play poker at the lowest level you are not exposing yourself to serious losses or gains. After all $1/$2 no limit is such piddly stakes, right? This is the lowest level casinos in North America play at but it is plenty steep enough to lose outrageous amounts of money if you are reckless. Many times I have witnessed someone busting out and re-buying multiple times. I once saw a guy lose about $1,200 in two hours at a $1/$2 table. I have lost $600 myself in a single night.

Believe it or not, you can make a living playing $1/$2 no limit. I met a guy in Vegas who was doing just that. Mike was a laid-off construction worker who had just bought a house and had bills to pay. He turned to poker, playing an average of twelve hours a day, six days a week. With such a grueling schedule he was able to average about $1000 per week. Glamorous, huh? I asked if he ever considered going back to construction, and he told me he would quit poker the second a good construction job came along. Still, the point is that if you are serious and dedicated, it is possible to make a living at the $1/$2 table.

Last Friday the biggest pot I had ever witnessed at a $1/$2 table went down. Because the most you can bring to this level is $300, it is rare to see truly massive pots. But Tom (see previous post) and Francis (a young Filipino lagtard*) had very large stacks; about $750 and $1100 respectively. They had both been here all night (it was now about 1 p.m.) so those stacks presumably were the fruits of many hours labour. Another guy dressed in an Eberle jersey and matching Oilers cap had just joined the table about an hour earlier, but had quickly built his stack to about $700.

Tom raised to $15 on the button when it had folded to him and both Francis in the small blind and Eberle in the big blind called. There was $45 in the pot when the flop came As 10s 8d. Francis led out with a $20 bet which Eberle called before Tom raised to $50. Francis seemed genuinely excited that there was so much interest in the pot, and gleefully announced "Three-fifty!", pushing another $330 in chips forward.  Wow. To my surprise Eberle hardly even thought about it before calling, and then Tom pushed all in with his remaining $685. Holy crap. Francis need another $400 or so to call and he doesn't even give it much thought, pushing four stacks of $5 chips into the middle. Eberle only has about $300 left, but he puts it in.

Holy crap. With two guys all-in there can be no more betting. What is going on here? Tom says "If either of you guys have pocket aces, you are probably good." and he shows pocket tens. Francis lets out a soft curse and turns over A 10 - he needs to hit an ace to win. Eberle doesn't show, which makes me think he is on a flush draw, maybe a straight-flush draw. But when the four of spades comes on the turn he shows no reaction. The river is a blank and Eberle mucks. "Seat open," he says and walks away from the table.

Tom rakes in a pot of around $2,200. Not bad for "low stakes" poker.



*What is a lagtard? Stay tuned for my next post: Busting the Lagtard

Monday, September 3, 2012

Thinking through the hand

Here is an interesting hand I witnessed on my last trip to the casino - I am going to try to reconstruct it for you, because I believe it demonstrates how good poker players think.

The players involved are Tom and Robin. Both are very good players who play aggressively. Robin tends to bluff a lot, but because he bets the same whether he has a hand or not, it is difficult to tell when he is bluffing. Tom plays a tighter range of starting hands than Robin does and bluffs less frequently, but he times his moves well - bluffing only when he senses weakness.

The game is $1/$2 NLHE, and when the following hand occurred both players had about $500 in chips. A couple of players limped in when Robin, in late position, made his standard pre-flop raise of $20. We will find out later that Robin is holding K4 off - a pretty crappy hand. I would not suggest anyone do what Robin did here, but Robin is such a good post-flop player that he can often win on a later street with inferior cards.

It folds to Tom who is in the big blind. Tom knows Robin could have just about anything here, so he decides to call. Unfortunately we will never see what Tom's hole cards are. The flop is Ac Kc 8h. Tom checks. Robin has hit middle pair. He thinks that if Tom has an ace he would probably bet it to protect against the flush draw. So Robin thinks his King might be good, but he is worried Tom might also have a king with a better kicker. Robin decides to put out a "feeler bet" -in this case a $20 bet which is roughly half the pot. Robin thinks Tom will probably fold if he has nothing, and will probably raise with an ace. Tom, however, chooses to call. What does this mean? Robin suspects Tom either has two clubs or a king - so he really has no clue if he is ahead or behind. Of course Tom would also just call here if he had a monster hand like AA, KK or AK.

Although we never learn what Tom has, we do know that he has neither a king or an ace - because if he had he would have won the hand. So why did he call the flop? Tom knows Robin could have anything - and he also knows (like I know) that Robin tends to give up on his bluffs if his opponent shows no sign of backing down. Tom, I think, is getting ready to scoop the pot with a bluff of his own.

The turn is 8d. Tom checks. Robin checks. Why? I don't know! Tom, I have noticed, likes to take down pots on the turn. I believe he was hoping to check-raise. Robin has no idea where he is, so he checks.

There is about $85 in the pot when the river comes, making the board Ac Kc 8h 8d 9s. Tom checks. Robin bets $50 and Tom re-raises to $200. Wow!

So what do you think Tom has? What do you think Robin will do?

Think about it for a second. Robin thinks about it for quite a while. He decides Tom does not have an ace. For whatever reason he has concluded that this big bet on the river is either a stone cold bluff, or a sign that this is going to be a split pot. The pair of eights and the ace on the board has made Robins' weak kicker irrelevant. Robin decides to call. It seems an amazing call to make, but if you think through the hand the way Robin did it makes sense.

Robin shows his hand and Tom is astounded. "How can you call with just a king?" he asks andd luckily for me and you, Robin tells everyone exactly what he was thinking. Which I just re-wrote for you here.

Tom disgustedly throws his cards in the muck and Robin rakes in a big pot.

Saturday, September 1, 2012

The most important piece of poker advice ever

I am a good poker player but I am not a great poker player. Luckily for me, just being good is often all it takes to win money. How do mediocre guys like me win? The answer happens to be the greatest piece of poker wisdom ever. Now pay attention. This is important. Are you ready? Here it is:

Play against people that are worse than you are.

That's right. If you go into a card room with the goal of taking on the best poker sharks you can find just to prove how good you are, well then you are asking for trouble. Sure, playing against top rate opponents is a great way to make you a better player - if you are smart enough to learn from the experience - but you should make your bread and butter against schmucks who bluff too much and chase draws at bad odds.

So if your goal is to prove yourself to be a badass by beating all the other badasses, well have fun and good luck. 

Even if you are just mediocre - like me - you should also keep trying to improve. Remember, the better you get, the easier it will be to find people that are worse than you. Logging the hours in the poker room will also help you identify the players who are better than you. It is fine to sit at a table that has one or two guys that are better than you, you can learn from them without losing money to them. Just make sure that most of the guys at the table are worse than you. Often it takes a while, maybe an hour or two, to really figure out who is good and who is bad, so be very cautious at first. If you discover that there are three or four guys better than you, switch tables or go home. The longer you stay the more likely it is you will lose money. 

Now here is the hard part - do you have the ability to admit that there are better players out there than you? Can you identify them? Can you say to yourself, "Tom is better than me because he mixes up his game better than I do. He switches styles very well and I have trouble guessing what he is doing. I am not going to try to impress all these other guys by standing up to Tom and beating him - screw that. I am going to avoid Tom unless I have the nuts." Can you swallow your ego and do that? If so then you might avoid losing all your chips to Tom, and then when those fish Dick and Harry donk off all their chips you won't be there to collect some of them.

Poker and Existentialism

I recently reread Waiting for Godot. To me the main message is how most of us, maybe all of us, live each day doing pretty much the same things and thinking the same thoughts as all the rest of our days. We remember so little and so learn very little from our experiences. We do not progress, we repeat. Habit is the great deadener.

I believe that the poker rooms of the world are filled with Vladimirs, Estragons, Pozzos and Luckys. They repeat and repeat and repeat. They play the same style, makes the same great plays and the same dumb plays. Make the same jokes. They win and they lose, but they don't change and they don't learn.

I started writing this blog in an attempt to remember, and by remembering hopefully learning something.

After all, I am just a Vladimir too.

Friday, August 31, 2012

The Winning Attitude

Fear and greed are two sides of the same coin - the coin of self-doubt. Fear is born out of the suspicion that the universe has it in for you - that the gods see through your shammy pretense and are going to hit ya with that big ol' mallet. Greed is thinking those gods are looking the other way and that now you can steal something you really don't deserve - and that the possessing will be proof of your worth.

Fear and greed have the same root - a lack of self confidence, or being comfortable with your role in the universe.

Embrace your true nature.

Let the chips flow to you.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Winning is Wonderful...(finis)

Up to around $900, I was determined not to make the mistake I have often made when I have a big stack in front of me - I get too loose, play too many marginal hands and donk off a bunch of chips. So I went into super-tight mode.

Fold fold fold.

While I was folding three other guys at the table were trying to out-crazy each other. Finally they decided to "roll" for a $100 each - each guy put up $100 in chips and agreed not to bet the hand after the flop - in essence they wanted to just let luck decide the winner, which is kinda dumb because the casino would take a rake. Why not just flip coins for it in the parking lot?

Fold, fold, fold.

Finally I was dealt pocket 10's in late position. A double-straddle was on and there were a few callers before me. I just called and six players saw the following flop Ac 6c 10c. The small blind checked and the guy in the big blind raised it to $55. This dude was one of the maniacs - he was the one who had instigated the $100 roll. He had been losing pretty heavily and had just re-bought for $300. What to make of his bet here? It could be a "steam raise" - an overly aggressive move from a guy who has been losing, It folded to me. I decided my opponent was semi-bluffing - that he had something like Kc Qd. I dismissed the idea that he might have the flush already. I was sure my set was ahead. He had just under $200 left so I raised it to $255. He snapped called.

"You have a set, huh?" he asked and I nodded. With no more betting to be done, he flipped his cards over - Kc 9c. The nut flush. How could I have walked right into that?

"Nice hand," I said, turning over my tens.

The dealer flipped over a Jack on the turn and then another Jack on the river, giving me a full house.

To his credit he only let out a soft mutter of "Unbelievable" instead of the usual loud profanity that follows a bad beat. As the dealer pushed the chips my way I offered an apology. My opponent was very gracious and I distinctly got the feeling he was hoping I would stick around so he could get his chips back.

Even though I won another big hand, I was unsettled. I had badly mis-read an opponent - a sign I was not on top of the game anymore.

About a half hour later I lost a pot when I chased a flush draw with bad pot odds. I was very lucky that I missed the draw because another big stack was drawing to a higher flush - if we both hit I could have been wiped out.

Even after that modest loss I had well over a thousand dollars in front of me. I realized I was no longer playing well and it was time for me to leave - but it is just so hard to leave! I stuck around for another dozen hands, folding them all, until at last the voice of reason won over and I left.