Friday, December 3, 2010

In Praise of Low Variance

About twenty years ago I read a Kurt Vonnegut novel called Bluebeard. In the intervening years I have forgotten almost everything about the book except for a specific scene in which the protagonist, an abstract painter, is confronted by someone who thinks abstract art is a scam. The artist is asked something like "What makes your scribblings any more valuable than the random smatterings a monkey could make?" The artist replies by quickly and skillfully drawing a beautiful, realistic picture. "Because I can do this."

Okay, maybe the scene didn't go exactly like that, but that's roughly how I remember it. The point the artist makes is that good abstract art is grounded in mastering the fundamentals. One can think of Picasso who painted like a master when he was a child, then painted increasingly abstract works in his maturity.

What does all this have to do with poker? Well a lot of people watch poker on television and think it looks easy. They see guys making what look like crazy, even random moves, and they think that it is easy to play poker at the highest level. True, poker at it's highest level can resemble poker at it's lowest level in much the same way that, to an untrained eye, a Jackson Pollock looks like something their kindergarten kid could make. But it ain't that easy folks. As a friend of mine has pointed out, poker on television only shows you a small percentage of the hands that have been played. What you don't see are all the boring hands where not much happens. It is in all those hands you don't see that the good poker players gather information on each other and this information in turn leads to them making those random looking moves on the televised hands.

Too many jump into poker at a level they are not ready for, dreaming of final table glory and imagining what clothes they will wear when they beat Phil Ivey. Before you get in over your head, learn the fundamentals. Like an artist learning to draw, train yourself.

Good poker training should start with a low variance game. Low variance just means a game in which it is relatively clear who is ahead at any given point, and one in which it is less likely that one can "get lucky" in order to win (or unlucky and loose). Playing low variance games will instill a respect for the laws of probability in you - and you will need this as surely as a painter needs to know how to mix colours.

Razz is probably the lowest variance game. I will go into the rules of razz in a future post, but let me just say it is about as exciting as betting on coin tosses - which is exactly why it is a good game for the beginning poker player. It will drive out of your mind all those dreams of poker glory that lead to the destruction of bankrolls. It will teach you the most underrated poker skill: patience.

Limit hold 'em is also good, particularly when played for low stakes. The two biggest mistakes beginning poker players have is bluffing too much and playing too many hands. You can't really bluff in limit hold 'em because you can't place a really big bet that can scare opponents out of the pot. In limit hold 'em you have to think about playing sound poker, knowing when you are likely behind and folding. Knowing when you are likely ahead and raising. You have to concentrate on the fundamentals.

For more advanced poker players, low variance games are like what doing scales are to a musician. John Coltrane, the great jazz sax player who got increasingly abstract and experimental, was said to have played scales for two hours a day throughout his career. Even the most celebrated poker genius should play low variance games occasionally to keep themselves grounded in the fundamentals. By doing so you will have a much better chance of making the perfect, carefully calculated play that will look like a random move to the rubes watching you on television.

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