Saturday, December 11, 2010

Tournament Strategy: Avoiding Coin-Flips

In my post about playing in a tournament with a short stack, I said that you should look for a spot to try to double up. In other words, you should be prepared to go all in before the flop with hands that stand up well in coin-flip situations. When you are short stacked this makes sense, but too many players with healthy stacks make the mistake of letting their tournament fate ride on coin-flips. The most common situation is pocket queens against big slick - two premium hands that many players seem willing to go all in with no matter what the stage of a tournament. I used to do it myself but I've wised up.

Before you make a move involving most or all of your chips, do a risk assessment. What is the upside? You double up. In the middle stages of a tournament doubling your chips is great, but it doesn't automatically put you in the money. You gain a slight advantage, but what do you risk? You risk everything.

Once you are in the money, moving up positions can greatly increase the money you make. It's then that the upside justifies the gamble. Or, as I have said, when you are short stacked the "down side" - being knocked out of the tournament - is what will happen if you don't act, so you might as well try it. In the middle of a tournament, with an average sized stack, its just a bad gamble.

If you believe in your own skill as a poker player, you should feel confident in playing QQ or AK without going all in pre-flop with them. By the middle stages of the tournament you should have enough information on your opponents to play against them. By going all in pre-flop you are saying you would rather give your fate over to chance than rely on your skill to play the hand out. You won't win tournaments if you don't have more confidence in yourself that that.

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