Thursday, May 26, 2011

Ball of Confusion

I'm almost half-way though The Elder Experiment and very little of the results make any sense so far. I should refrain from any comments until the experiment is over, but I assumed some kind of general pattern would be emergingby now. Instead it seems that the amount I am winning or losing from different positions is almost random.

The only thing that makes sense is that after 450 hands from every position, I have lost a lot of play money from the blinds. With $2000/$1000 blinds, I lose an average of $702 each time I am in the big blind and $582 from the small. These numbers make sense to me. One should, over time, lose money in the blinds.

The button - the position which is supposed to be the most profitable- is the only position outside of the blinds in which I am currently losing money! How does that make sense? The only answer I can come up with is that fault is with me and not with the stars; that I am over playing my hands from the button or that I am calling too much with weak cards. That is one good result of such pseudo-scientific experiments - they might expose weakness in your game that you can try to remedy.

Still, I can't see much in the results so far to convince me that position is as important as everyone says it is. I think I will make as much with AA from under-the-gun as I will from the button.

I remain a cynic.

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