...and its called the law of averages. And the more poker you play, the greater force the law of averages will hold over your game. The funny thing is most poker players I know don't really understand what the law of averages is all about. They think things like "Well, I missed my last five flush draws, so that means I'm more likely to hit a flush draw here", and then they make a call they should probably not make.
If you are holding two hearts and the flop comes with two more hearts, your odds of hitting a flush if you stay in to the river are just under 35%, and you should play the hand accordingly based on pot odds and implied pot odds, and the likelihood you can get away with a bluff if you miss altogether. If you have missed the last five flush draws the odds remain 35%. If you have hit each of the last five flush draws the odds remain 35%.
The law of averages applies to a very large sample - if you play poker ten hours per week for twenty five years you might see a couple hundred thousand hands and you will have hit your flush draws 34.95% of the time. But a four hour session is far too small a sample size to start demanding that the law of averages must allow you to hit a flush after you've missed two draws.
You should apply the law of averages by trying to make the best play in each situation. Ask yourself, If I had to play this exact hand ten thousand times, what actions would be most profitable? When you think this way, you start thinking about "EV", which is poker shorthand for expected value, then you start putting the law of averages to work for you in a truly meaningful way that will, over the long-term, be advantageous.
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