Among the players sitting at the table on Friday was a guy I'd played with several times before - let's call him Doug. Doug talks. A lot. Doug is a "colour commentator". He will evaluate the hand just played and say what the proper move was, or wasn't, at each stage. He will often criticize the other players, saying things like, "I don't know why he bluffed in that situation. Anyone can see the other guy is complete calling station, it's insane to try to bluff a calling station." Doug is annoying as hell, but most of what he says seems to make sense to me. Sitting at a table with him can be an education. He is an astute observer of his opponents and is more than willing to share his observations. After an hour you will have a pretty accurate picture of how he plays the game, which is useful should you have to tangle with him.
I was on the button with 4 5 off - a hand I would normally fold. But someone limped and everyone else (including Doug, who sat two chairs to my right) had called so I figured a $2 call wasn't out of line. The blinds were also in, so all nine of us saw the flop: 4 4 J rainbow. Sweet. It checked around to Doug who put out a $10 bet. I just called and two others called behind me. Doug said "Does everyone have a four?" and it seemed to me that he was trying to send out gee, I'm nervous vibes. Often when a guy asks if you have a particular strong hand, he will be holding that exact hand himself, and this is what I instantly felt Doug was doing. I knew that if Doug had a four, then I might have kicker trouble. So when an eight came on the turn and Doug bet $25 I folded. The other two folded as well. As Doug handed his cards back to the dealer he flipped one over. It was a four. It was nice of him to confirm for me that my read had been correct.
Still, not knowing what the other card was, there is a good chance that had I called we would have split the pot. With a 4 4 J 8 board, we would be splitting the pot if he had a 7 6 5 3 or 2 to go with his 4. And there is a chance a high card on the river would also split the pot.
So did I really make a smart fold? Or was I overly cautious? Should I have called a $25 bet into a $58 pot knowing my opponent probably had a 4, or was folding correct?
You tell me.
I think there's about even odds that you would have split the pot. I can't imagine a good player calling there without either an A or a connector or suited one/two gapper (outside chance of K4s also). If he held an A or K you'd have been outgunned of course, o/w splitting it (unless the river brought him a full, but there's the chance it would have filled you up as well). Folding a 1/2 pot bet while holding a set, I would call a VERY cautious move.
ReplyDeleteBut then, it's really easy to lose a lot of money on a play like that, and the river might have seen you have to make an even tougher call, one for your whole stack.
What the stacks looked like at that point might have had some bearing on whether or not calling looked like a good move.
I think your flat call on the flop was a weak move, which kind of put you in a bind on the turn. Don't you think that seizing control of the hand by raising him on the flop might not have been a better line to take? Again, a risky maneuver, but it might have given you the edge.
You are right - just calling on the flop was weak. I was hoping he was bluffing and would fire another few raises at me on later streets - but I went to thinking he had a four when he made his comment and then I didn't know where I stood. Should have raised.
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