When I make notes on other players, one of the things I look for is how they behave in "four to the flush" situations. By this I mean I like to see how they react when four cards of the same suit are on the board, because it reveals a great deal about their character, and the more you know about your opponent's character the better.
A few years ago I was in Vegas, playing poker against real people at real tables for virtually the first time. I was nervous and it probably showed. One day I was playing at the Mirage when I found myself in a hand where by the river there were four hearts on the board. I was first to act and since I didn't have a heart I checked. My opponent checked as well and when we flipped our cards I saw he had a better pair than mine - but no heart. As my opponent was gathering his chips the player on my left leaned over to me.
"I would have bet the river there," he said.
"But I didn't have a heart," I replied.
"Yeah, but he probably doesn't have it either."
This is what first got me thinking about the four-to-the-flush bluff, which I will hearby refer to as the "42FB", since that is the shorthand I use when making notes.
Is it a good idea to make the 42FB? Generally speaking it is. From a pure odds perspective, it is a good bet that you opponent does not have a card in the suit - four of them are already on the table, which leaves only nine out of the remaining 45 cards you haven't seen to complete the flush. With two random cards in his hand, that means he has only about a 40% chance of having a flush.
This is one of those cases where it really depends on your read of your opponent. Against cautious, passive players, the 42FB is a good move. However if he is an aggressive guy, and is well aware of the odds himself, he may just decide to put you to the test with a re-raise. A slow-player might check-down with the flush, expecting a bluff. A "by-the-book" guy would have made bets to chase the flush draw away if he doesn't have it himself. What you should do is entirely dependent on your read of your opponent,
Pay attention to hands you are not involved in for when the 42FB situation comes up and see how the players react. This will give you valuable information on how to play against them.
I'm pretty bad at reading people at the table, but I used to play against a guy who would make a decent-sized bet anytime 3 cards of the same suit came on the board - except when he'd made his flush & then he'd check.
ReplyDeleteThat was a useful bit of info.
It's basically trying to figure out which players do the "act strong when you are weak and act weak when you are strong" routine.
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of basing how you act on how others act is that it makes your own play harder for others to figure out. If you check the nut against a bluffer, and then later bet the nut against a calling station, other players might have a harder time putting you on a hand.
That's some next-level shit right there, partner.
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