I've been feeling very uneasy the last few days about my previous posts regarding continuation bet bluffs. My unease centers around having given very general advice on situations when all sorts of specific circumstances could make my advice worthless, maybe even costly. Always remember that you are ultimately the best judge of what to do in any given situation.
I'm also uncomfortable with my statements that such-and-such has a 65% chance of making an opponent fold, whereas so-and-so has a 75% chance. Where did I get these stats? I dunno, just guessed from my own experience. The truth is I pulled these stats out of my ass to try to illustrate how opponents act, so just take them as ballpark figures, okay?
I'll steer away from questionable stats completely today
I want to finish this little lecture series by examining the best time to make a continuation bet - when you actually have a good hand! Because continuation bet bluffs are so common, you are pretty likely to get a call on a continuation bet if you do it properly. Just as you should not bluff into a big pot that your opponent has already invested a lot of chips in, this is the perfect pot to continue betting into with a strong hand. Your opponent will not want to fold and give up on the chips he's already bet and he is likely to convince himself you are just trying to steal the pot. He will want to believe this, so you should encourage his suspicion that you are bluffing. A great way to make people think you are bluffing is to draw a little attention to yourself. This is what I do; I take an extra 3 seconds to ponder my bet, then I announce "raise!" in a slightly louder than normal voice, and push my chips forward in a slightly more aggressive fashion. The point is to create a bit of confusion in your opponents mind. Get him thinking about what you are trying to get him to do. Of course I can use this trick only once in a while, but that's okay - the next time I want to get an opponent to call I'll do something else. Pull on my nose. Say "I never fold this hand'. Burp. It really doesn't matter what I do, as long as I draw attention to myself I am helping my opponent reach the conclusion that he wants to believe - that I am bluffing.
The truth is that it is a lot easier to get an opponent to call than to fold. This is another arguement for making those continuation bet bluffs - they set you up for the times when you really have the hands. If you have gotten away with a few continuation bet bluffs, you'd better be aware that the other players at the table suspect that you were bluffing (poker players are an untrusting lot!) so if you have planted that seed in their minds you are a gambler, then you can reap the rewards of their bad calls when you do have a hand.
Always think about what your opponents think about you.
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