Thinking is important.

It's a wonderful autumn day in Calgary, Alberta. Much too nice to go in to a casino, right? Ah, but I just feel so good that I know I'm going to play well...so it's off to play a little 4/8 limit hold'em!

Yes, I just got back from my 3 1/2 hour session and I'm feeling pretty good about making $145 today. I played really well, and by that I mean I only made a few mistakes, and the mistakes I made were not very costly.

I would like to relate one hand in particular because it illustrates the importance of always thinking about what cards your opponents may be holding.

This is limit hold'em, with a $4 big blind and a $2 small blind. I was in the small blind with QQ. The guy under the gun limps in and four guys call him. How sweet is this? It is very unlikely any one of them is holding AA or KK, and odds are also in my favor that neither an Ace or a King will flop. With $26 in the pot already, I know I will get callers if I raise here, so it's only costing me another $6 to build the pot up even more. So I raise it up to $8.

Now let's just stop and think about what I've done and what the other players must think about my hand. Raising in this position is showing a lot of strength - I'm saying I like my cards so much that I'm willing to bet they will still be ahead of five other guys (maybe six, if the big blind joins the party) after the flop. I had not made a single pre-flop raise up until this point and I had been playing very tight. A bet like this, with the tight table image I know I have established, can only mean I'm holding AA, KK, QQ or AK. Even if I had AQ or JJ I probably would not make such a move, and good poker players would probably know I'm most likely to be holding one of the four hands I've just named.

Back to the hand: the big blind folds, and every single one of the five remaining players calls my raise. There is now $52 in the pot, and I'm even more certain that nobody has AA. Anybody holding AA would re-raise to build the pot, confident of getting at least one caller (me) and probably a few more. KK is also very unlikely for the same reason. So everybody is just drooling over that $52 pot and hoping the poker gods will smile on them.

The flop: Jd 9h 6d

So, there are possible flush and straight draws. It's also possible that somebody has pocket Jacks, Nines or Sixes, so my over pair may not be good. I have to act first, so I decide to place the $4 bet (In limit hold 'em I am limited to betting or raising $4 at a time before the turn, and after the turn the bet has to be $8 - that's why they call it 4/8 limit.) My reasoning is that I am probably ahead, and if one of my opponents has the trips they will likely re-raise me. If nobody re-raises, then I'm probably good. I also think anybody who missed the flop completely will fold and I'm happy to narrow the field here.

What must my opponents think of my hand now? They must know that unless I've suddenly gone crazy, I've got a big pair. AK has just been eliminated from the likely cards I'm holding because it would be way too risky to raise against five guys without even a pair! Still I get two callers (no raise - so I think I'm okay) and the pot is now $62. What do my opponents have? Ace-something, probably. Maybe two diamonds and they hope to hit the flush. I hope the turn is not a diamond or an Ace.

The turn: Ace of Clubs.

Well, durn. I think I may have just fallen behind here. I don't think I'll bet because the chances are just too great one of these guys has an Ace. So I check.

And now I'm going to let you in on a little secret. One of my opponents is holding AQ. I don't know this yet, but I'm about to find out. So here is this guy holding AQ, which he pays $8 to see the flop with. He misses the flop but he pays another $4 to see the turn, and he hits his ace. Now if he had been thinking about my hand, he should think I've got AA, KK or QQ, so he should figure he is a 2/3 favourite to be ahead. What does he do? He checks. Now I don't want to say this was a stupid thing to do, but it was a stupid thing to do. Here is my advice to him (assuming he reads my blog) and to all of you: If you think you are ahead, but vulnerable, then for God's sake bet! By simply checking he is putting himself in a tough position if the river completes the flush draw or straight draw (If he hasn't been playing attention he might think I'm drawing to one of these). If he has been paying attention and has me on KK or QQ (If he thought I had AA he would have folded by now) , then by checking he'll have a tough decision to make if the river brings a King or a Queen.

And the other guy checks too. Sweet, I don't have to make a difficult decision with the Ace on the board.

And the river is a big, beautiful Queen of Hearts.

I don't even consider checking to "lay a trap". I might do that in no-limit, but in limit all that bluffing and trapping stuff is ineffective. I bet $8. My inattentive friend gleefully raises to $16 with his two-pair. The other guy can't fold fast enough. I announce raise, but I haven't been paying very close attention myself - I can't raise because my opponent has no chips left to call with, so I have to just call. He turns over his two pair and I show my set of Queens and rake in the $94 pot.

And he is very upset. Apparently I am just a lucky jackass who can't win a hand unless he rivers a set.

Am I? I think I played that hand perfectly. If he had been paying attention and figured out what cards I was probably holding (how many clues do I have to give him?) then he would have saved himself a big loss. And if I rivered a set, well he let me see the river for free didn't he?

(Yes, in poker "river" is a also a verb.)