The point I was trying to make in my last post is that the money your opponent puts into the pot before the flop acts like glue, sticking them to the pot even after the flop. The more money they put in, the more "stuck" they are to the pot and more difficult to push off with a continuation bet - be it a bluff or not. The opposite is also true and can make you money.
Let's say you are the first to act in a pot and raise only twice the big blind. Like in our last example, you get one caller and the blinds both fold. So now there are 5.5 bets in the pot; the 2 you put in, the 2 the caller put in, 0.5 from the small blind and 1 from the big blind. The flop comes and you miss it. Just like last time, I'm going to put the question before you in a larger font and italics:
Should you try to take the pot right here with a continuation bet bluff?
Unlike last time, when we do the math on this example we see the answer is yes.
In my experience, opponents are less likely to defend small pots that they have not invested a lot in, so you can expect have opponents to fold 75% of the time in this situation. So let's say you make your continuation bet about 3/4 the pot - that's another 4 bets you are putting at risk to win 5.5 bets.
If your opponent folds, you have only won an additional 3.5 bets more than you started the hand with - 5.5 minus the two bets you put in yourself. Run this 100 times, then 75 times you should win 2.5 bets. You can therefore expect to win 75 x 2.5, or 187.5 bets over 100 hands.
If the opponent doesn't fold, as he won't do 25% of the time, the situation is not as dire as it was the previous example - you still have a good chance of winning some pots. Still let's be very pessimistic and write them all off as losses; you'll lose the 2 bets you made before the flop, plus the 3.5 bets you made the continuation bet bluff for a total 5.5 bets you lose. Run it 100 times, then 25 times you should lose 5.5 bets. You can therefore expect to lose 25 x 5.5 or 137.5 bets over 100 hands. Subtract 137.5 bets from your winnings of 187.5 and you come up ahead 50 bets. So you profit.
Now before you go running off making this play all the time, expecting to make money, there are a few other things that have to be in place before you make this play. You know that 75% success rate? It only applies if all the following factors are in place:
1) Your opponent is tight. Meaning he plays few hands and only continues if he thinks he is ahead.
2) Your opponent must believe you are a tight, methodical player. In other words you have to have been at the table for a while and shown yourself to be someone who only bets when they have the cards. Once you feel that the other players see you as ultra-conservative, then you can begin to take advantage of your image. If you have been gambling and bluffing -and everybody knows it- you won't get many folds. In fact a good player might re-raise you with nothing in their hand because they know you are bluffing.
3) You don't pull this move too often. People will catch on.
4) Your opponents stack size is important too. If your opponent has a big stack, she will be more willing to continue the hand for a small bet, so be careful. If your opponent has only a very few chips left, then they might also call - they have lost so much already they don't care about losing a bit more.
5) Even though you missed the flop, it is best to try to take the pot post-flop when you have some kind of draw. That way if you do get called, you still might hit your draw and win a larger pot.
My next post will be my last on this topic. I promise.
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