Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Lose the battle, win the war.

When I was just starting out, I would make the following mistake all the time.

I would be dealt pocket queens, see a flop with a ace or a king in it (sometimes both), and I just couldn't fold my queens when an opponent made a big raise. Again and again I lost when it was obvious that an opponent had a higher pair than me. How could I have been so stupid as to make this call - and to make it repeatedly? The only way I could be ahead in this situation would be if my opponent was making a stone-cold bluff, and that is improbable. So why did I do it? I think it was because I was so excited to have a good hand pre-flop that I didn't want to admit to myself I was beat post-flop. I chose to ignore a cardinal rule of poker:

It is not the absolute strength of your cards that matter - it is the relative strength.
Pocket queens are, in absolute terms, excellent cards pre-flop. Only two hands are better, and the chances an opponent has AA or KK is less than 2%. But when the flop comes down with an Ace or a King in it, and one of your opponents seems very happy with that flop, then the relative value of your ladies is now very low.
Sure an opponent could be bluffing. But if the pot was raised pre-flop, then odds are good someone is holding an ace or a king. The fact is you are much more likely to talk yourself into believing your opponent is bluffing, than for him to actually be bluffing. This is because:
People want to believe in the best case scenario, even when it is unlikely.
In my last post I told about losing a big pot with JJ because I just didn't want to believe I was beaten. I was so intent on winning that hand that I put my remaining chips at risk. But poker is not about winning as many hands as you can, It's about winning the biggest pots you can and losing the smallest pots you can.
Once you have put chips into a pot they no longer belong to you. If you try desperate things to get back your chips, you are throwing good money after bad.

I remember clearly the first time I found the strength to throw away the ladies when an ace hit the flop. I lost that hand, of course, but a small thrill went through me as I realized I had taken the first step to becoming a good poker player.

Good players make good lay downs. The QQ example is just the beginning. As you get better, you will learn to recognize when your jack-high flush is worthless, when holding the "bad-end" of a straight is not good, and when your ace-high flush is beat by a full-house. You will be a great poker player because you will recognize the true relative value of your hands, and you will not throw good money after bad.

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