Folding Top Two Pair

Went to the casino today with $100 to play a little $1/$2 no-limit hold 'em.

I folded about twenty hands when in middle position I was dealt AJo. I have developed a fondness lately for "garlic" (The Spanish word for garlic is "ajo") and was willing to play it, when the guy under the gun raised it to $15 and there was one caller in front of me. I called, although part of me was wondering if I was up against a stronger ace.

The Flop: Ad Jc 10d

Hoo-boy. I got top two pair! I am all set to put my money in when Player 1 bets $30. This is what I think - Player 1 probably has AK or AQ. The size of the bet indicates he thinks he is ahead but is afraid of the flush draw. Or maybe he is on a draw himself and is just being a tricky bastard. Either way I think I'm ahead, so as soon as this other guy folds I'm going to re-raise this sucker.

However Player 2 doesn't follow the script. He calls. Now I'm forced to think again. There is a poker saying that goes "it takes a stronger hand to call a bet than to make a bet" - in other words when someone bets there is a possibility they are, in my wife's words, being a beanie-pants. You can bet with a mediocre hand, but you shouldn't call with one! Player 2's call shows real strength. I think he may have Kd - which puts him on both the flush draw and the straight draw. Or maybe he already has the straight, or a set. Am I seriously thinking about laying down the top two pair? Heck, yes. I throw my garlic in the muck.

The turn: 6c

Player 1 checks. Player 2 checks.

The river: 9h

Player 1 bets $50 and Player 2 says "all in" - which represents a raise of about $300. It doesn't take Player 1 long to decide to fold, and when he does he shows that he had the garlic too! Player 2 flips his cards over - Kd Qd. He flopped the nut straight and one more diamond would have given him the nut flush. Also a Jd would have given him a royal flush (that was impossible because I folded the Jd, but he didn't know that.) I felt like I'd just dodged a bullet.

Not busting out on this hand was very, very good for me because about an hour later I was dealt AA when two other guys were both dealt KK. All three of us went all-in! My hand held up and I went from being down $40 to being up $80 in a single incredibly lucky hand. But I would not have been sitting at the table if I hadn't folded the top two pair earlier.

Luck is the residue of design.