Luck - and how to avoid it

I don't believe in luck, but I do believe remarkably unlikely things happen quite often at a poker table.

I have been in a tournaments and have gone all in with pocket jacks, only to be called by pocket queens (How unlucky for me!) and then hit a third jack to win (Gee, how lucky!). I've have seen people bet large amounts with garbage hands, get called by pocket aces, and still win with unlikely flushes or straights. I have seen people hit the one card they need to make a straight flush on the river, after foolishly calling an all-in bet. How can I say I don't believe in luck when I've seen such things?

Well, let's not call that luck. Let's call it probability. If you play enough hands, then you will see some strange things, and it is human nature to remember the strange hands and forget the common ones.

Let's use the following example. You are in a no limit hold 'em tournament. You are sitting in middle position and have been dealt Ah As. Whoopie! Everyone folds to you, and you make a raise of three times the big blind. You get one caller and everyone else folds.

Now you don't know it, but the guy who just called you is holding absolute garbage: 5d 7c. He is down to half of his original chips and needs to do something soon. He called because he has been watching you closely for the last three hours and believes you are the kind of guy he can bluff off a pot, and that's exactly what he's going to try to do. You don't know this, of course.

The flop comes down Kd 2c 9d. You have to act first (a disadvantage, and another reason your opponent choose this moment to set up his bluff) and you just check, hoping you opponent caught that king. Your opponent pushes all in, you call, and your opponent knows he is dead meat. You both turn over your cards. You gleefully watch as the dealer flips over the turn - a 8d.

Wait just a second- there are three diamonds on the board. You don't have a diamond, but your opponent does, so if another diamond comes on on the river...Just as this disastrous possibility dawns on you the river comes down: queen of diamonds. Your opponent has a flush, beating your pair of aces.

Now you are mad. You did every thing right, your opponent did everything wrong, but he won because he was extremely lucky. This is what they call a "bad beat".You may even decide to start gambling with weaker hands, hoping to get lucky yourself. If you can't win with skill, you might as well take a chance too, right?

Wrong.

The chances Ah As will beat 5d 7c is about 86%, so you expected to win in this situation. When you expect to win, you are not surprised when you do win. However, 14% of the time a garbage hand like 5d 7c will beat your aces, and when this happens you will remember this incredibly bad beat. You will complain about it and make a big fuss about how unlucky you are. You tend to forget about all the times you have won with AA, and you tend to remember the times you have lost with AA. This is because people forget about all the times the expected happens and people remember all the times the unexpected happens.

Let me repeat that: People tend to forget the times the expected happens and people tend to remember all the times the unexpected happens. There are people who claim that they almost never win with AA, which, of course is baloney. They just remember all the times they lost with AA and have forgotten the times they have won. This gives them the false notion that poker is just a game of luck.

It works both ways: people remember the times they got lucky as well as when they were unlucky, and this makes people more likely to believe that poker is mostly luck. People who are on a lucky streak also tend to play mediocre hands, figuring that luck is more important than skill. People might play weird hands like Qc 9h no matter what the situation because they are convinced it is "their lucky hand".

The best thing you can do is to recognize that "bad beats" and "lucky streaks"are just part of the game. Stick to letting the odds determine your decisions and in the long run you will come out on top.