The Basics of Pot Odds
You are holding two hearts in a game of hold 'em, and the flop comes down with two hearts in it. There is $10 in the pot, and only one opponent in the hand with you. Your opponents bets $5. Do you call?
Many considerations may go in to your decision. How your opponent has been playing and relative stack-sizes may factor in. But the question most players ask themselves is "Am I getting good pot odds to make this call?"
What exactly do we mean by pot odds and why is understanding pot odds so important? In our present example, we are faced with the decision of making a $5 call on a $15 pot ($10 plus the other guys' $5 bet). In other words we stand to win 3 dollars for every dollar we wager. We're getting 3 to 1 odds here, or about 33%. So what are the odds, if we see the turn and the river, that we are going to complete the flush? About 36% (check out the previous post, What are the Odds?, to see how I came up with this number). So your chance of making this flush are not great, but you are getting good pot odds, so you usually should call the $5 bet.
Think of it this way. If you play the hand out 100 times, then you should lose about 64 times and win 36 times. Your total losses will be $320 (64 x your $5 call), and your total winnings will be $540 (36 x the $15 pot). Subtracting your losses from your gains and you'll see you come out $220 ahead. So you should feel alright about making that call.
There are other factors to consider however; things that if you don't pay attention to, you could lose a lot of dough.
Beware of a better flush
In my example I said you are holding two hearts, but I didn't say which two hearts. Consider that your opponent may have two higher hearts than you. Unlikely, but possible and in poker the unlikely happens quite frequently. If your opponent is experienced and thinks they have a better hand than you, then they will not give you good pot odds to hit a flush, but if they themselves are drawing to a flush they may make a small bet in the hopes of keeping you from making a bigger bet. Ask yourself why he's making such a small bet, and giving good pot odds, with an obvious flush draw on the board.
Beware of the full house
No matter what three cards come down on a flop, it is always possible an opponent hit two pair or even three of a kind. Think about it. A flop of 4h 8h jd looks harmless, but your opponent could have 4c 8d (particularly if he was in the big blind and saw the flop for free) or even pocket 4's, 8's or J's. A lot of people will play any pocket pair in the hopes of a big payday.So while you are drawing to a flush, your opponent may be drawing to a full house. Just remember It is impossible for him to get a full house, no matter what his hole cards are, unless there is a pair on the board. So if, as they say, the "board pairs" then be prepared to throw your hand away - even if you've made the flush. A lot of people simply can not lay down a flush in this situation and that's why a lot of money is won and lost with a flush against a full house. Remember, great players make great lay downs.
Look out for a shove on the turn
A lot of good players will make a small bet after the flop with the intention on luring you to call. You think you have a 36% chance of hitting a flush, but remember those odds are only good if you see the turn and the river. If a heart does not come on the turn your opponent might then make such a big bet that the pot odds are now against you. This scenario can happen in no-limit hold 'em, and illustrates why it is much easier to play hands like flush draws in limit hold 'em.Whew! I really blathered on today didn't I? Well, I hope that there is something in there you can use.
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